TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ ATL

Playable air · 1.06×

PHI @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:15p

+2 ↑

8:15p

+3 ↑

9:15p

+3 ↑

10:15p

+3 ↑

11:15p

the 7:15p window peaks +3

Best of game Matt Olson conv 13 · vs Proxy ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 33 · vs Mahle → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK PHI Bullpen Proxy

leak 69

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +370 C+ ●●○○○

2 Austin Riley +425 C ●●○○○

3 Ronald Acuna — C ●●○○○

FADE Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 62

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +255 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +575 D ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 35.2% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Mahle Edge +255 0.286 · 92.4 · 10.8% 30.8% 35.2% F B O B 70

· — Matt Olson COOL vs Proxy +370 0.254 · 92.7 · 14.6% 7.7% 18.6% F B O C+ 67

· — Austin Riley vs Proxy +425 0.141 · 91.4 · 12.1% 15.4% 9.5% F B O C 50

· — Ronald Acuna vs Proxy — 0.185 · 90.2 · 12.4% 0.0% 20.8% F B O C 50

· — Drake Baldwin COOL vs Proxy +525 0.174 · 91.6 · 12.6% 7.7% 13.1% F B O C 55

· — Bryce Harper COOL vs Mahle Edge +425 0.223 · 90.5 · 8.6% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Trea Turner vs Mahle +575 0.147 · 88.5 · 6.6% 15.4% 10.9% F B O D 44

· — Ozzie Albies vs Proxy +525 0.163 · 87.1 · 3.9% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 40

· — Alec Bohm vs Mahle +750 0.143 · 90.5 · 6.4% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 43

· — Michael Harris vs Proxy — 0.197 · 90.4 · 10.3% 0.0% 18.6% F B O D 49

· — Bryson Stott vs Mahle Edge +700 0.142 · 89.2 · 6.4% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 41

· — Dominic Smith COOL vs Proxy — 0.122 · 87.7 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 38

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Mahle Edge +850 0.151 · 89.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 44

· — Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Proxy — 0.147 · 90.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· — J.T. Realmuto vs Mahle +700 0.127 · 89.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 37

· — Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Proxy +950 0.119 · 86.4 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 31

· — Justin Crawford COOL vs Mahle Edge — 0.082 · 87.2 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Mahle — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for PHI Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Turner Olson

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +255 · 70

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:15p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:15p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:15p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:15p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

69°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 76°F, wind 4 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 70 B +255 COOL 1 0.286 92.4 10.8% 42.9%vs RHP 403 23.9% 30.8% 35.2% 33

2 Bryce Harper 55 C +425 COOL 32 0.223 90.5 8.6% 34.8%vs RHP 402 17.5% 0.0% 17.8% 29

3 Trea Turner 44 D +575 WARM 92 0.147 88.5 6.6% 19.5%vs RHP 390 12.9% 15.4% 10.9% 41

4 Brandon Marsh 44 D +850 COOL 94 0.151 89.3 7.5% 17.9%vs RHP 391 10.8% 0.0% 10.1% 22

5 Alec Bohm 43 D +750 WARM 103 0.143 90.5 6.4% 12.9%vs RHP 394 10.4% 9.1% 9.8% 26

6 Bryson Stott 41 D +700 · 122 0.142 89.2 6.4% 9.2%vs RHP 393 7.4% 8.3% 8.4% 30

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +700 WARM 149 0.127 89.7 6.0% 17.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 21

8 Justin Crawford 29 D — COOL 200 0.082 87.2 3.0% 4.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 7.1% 19

vs PHI Bullpen Proxy 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 67 C+ +370 COOL 9 0.254 92.7 14.6% 21.0% 408 22.8% 7.7% 18.6% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 55 C +525 COOL 42 0.174 91.6 12.6% 20.2% 402 15.6% 7.7% 13.1% 36

3 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 69 0.185 90.2 12.4% 17.2% 406 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 39

4 Austin Riley 50 C +425 · 70 0.141 91.4 12.1% 11.9% 409 9.6% 15.4% 9.5% 28

5 Michael Harris 49 D — · 83 0.197 90.4 10.3% 19.7% 397 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 32

6 Mike Yastrzemski 41 D — COOL 148 0.147 90.5 6.8% 10.6% 389 7.4% 0.0% 9.7% 19

7 Ozzie Albies 40 D +525 WARM 158 0.163 87.1 3.9% 10.6% 387 12.9% 8.3% 10.7% 34

8 Dominic Smith 38 D — COOL 165 0.122 87.7 5.4% 10.4% 392 7.8% 0.0% 10.8% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 31 D +950 COOL 206 0.119 86.4 3.7% 7.1% 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.