TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.41×

LAA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 4:05p · 11 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 7 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

4:05p

+9 ↑

5:05p

+8 ↑

6:05p

+7 ↑

7:05p

+6 ↑

8:05p

best window is early — 4:05p at +9

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 21 · vs Ureña ⟷ Zach Neto conv 25 · vs Alvarez → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 15

0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams +500 C ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz +700 D ●●○○○

3 Daylen Lile +525 C ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 14

0.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zach Neto +400 C ●●●●○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout +475 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto vs Alvarez Edge +400 0.199 · 89.7 · 8.3% 27.3% 23.3% F B O C 58

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Ureña Edge +500 0.230 · 89.6 · 7.6% 25.0% 17.4% F B O C 59

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Ureña Edge +525 0.181 · 88.7 · 7.3% 9.1% 16.8% F B O C 51

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Alvarez Edge +475 0.181 · 89.9 · 9.6% 8.3% 12.0% F B O C 53

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Ureña Edge +370 0.260 · 95.3 · 10.8% 0.0% 20.0% F B O C+ 66

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Ureña Edge +700 0.173 · 88.2 · 5.2% 14.3% 13.5% F B O D 47

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Alvarez — 0.147 · 88.6 · 7.1% 11.1% 13.4% F B O D 46

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Ureña +575 0.154 · 90.4 · 7.1% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 48

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Alvarez Edge +850 0.140 · 87.8 · 6.5% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 43

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Ureña +1000 0.141 · 87.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 42

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.115 · 87.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Alvarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Walbert Ureña — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Wood Abrams Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Ureña fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Zach Neto +400 · 58

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 4:05p · roof open

Park 1.17× Wind 7 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

4:05p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

5:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

6:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 81°F, wind 7 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 58 C +400 · 23 0.199 89.7 8.3% 20.0%vs LHP 403 16.5% 27.3% 23.3% 27

2 Mike Trout 53 C +475 COOL 39 0.181 89.9 9.6% 16.1%vs LHP 409 13.6% 8.3% 12.0% 30

3 Josh Lowe 46 D — WARM 81 0.147 88.6 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 394 9.9% 11.1% 13.4% 10

4 Vaughn Grissom 43 D +850 · 106 0.140 87.8 6.5% 3.7%vs LHP 391 8.8% 8.3% 7.6% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 40 D — COOL 131 0.115 87.3 6.2% 22.7%vs LHP 386 4.9% 0.0% 9.4% 14

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 66 C+ +370 WARM 8 0.260 95.3 10.8% 35.6%vs RHP 413 24.0% 0.0% 20.0% 19

2 Cj Abrams 59 C +500 WARM 18 0.230 89.6 7.6% 27.4%vs RHP 396 30.8% 25.0% 17.4% 21

3 Daylen Lile 51 C +525 HOT 46 0.181 88.7 7.3% 13.7%vs RHP 400 11.5% 9.1% 16.8% 28

4 Dylan Crews 48 D +575 COOL 64 0.154 90.4 7.1% 11.4%vs RHP 407 13.6% 9.1% 10.5% 26

5 Keibert Ruiz 47 D +700 WARM 68 0.173 88.2 5.2% 10.9%vs RHP 380 11.3% 14.3% 13.5% 16

6 Jacob Young 42 D +1000 COOL 114 0.141 87.7 5.8% 11.9%vs RHP 399 6.5% 0.0% 9.7% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

8 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.