TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TOR

Rogers Centre is live · 1.14×

BAL @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 7 mph out 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

3:07p

+4 ↑

4:07p

+6 ↑

5:07p

+7 ↑

6:07p

+6 ↑

7:07p

conditions build late — the 6:07p window peaks +7

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 31 · vs Bradish ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 25 · vs Miles → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 80

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +400 C ●●●●●

2 George Springer +525 D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Spencer Miles RHP · TOR

leak 3

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo +350 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +305 C ●●○○○

3 Colton Cowser +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 25.7% · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Bradish +400 0.219 · 90.5 · 10.5% 36.4% 25.7% F B O C 58

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Miles +350 0.241 · 91.3 · 7.5% 33.3% 17.5% F B O C 51

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Miles +305 0.229 · 94.2 · 7.7% 15.4% 16.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Miles Edge +750 0.151 · 88.0 · 6.7% 10.0% 12.0% F B O D 38

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Miles Edge +500 0.175 · 89.2 · 5.4% 7.7% 13.3% F B O D 38

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Miles Edge +700 0.117 · 87.1 · 5.3% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Miles Edge +500 0.188 · 90.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 41

· TOR George Springer vs Bradish +525 0.162 · 88.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Bradish Edge +950 0.118 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Miles Edge +750 0.130 · 88.2 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Bradish — 0.092 · 90.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Bradish Edge +950 0.116 · 85.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Bradish +950 0.108 · 84.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Bradish — 0.110 · 86.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Spencer Miles — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Bradish — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Mayo Alonso Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kazuma Okamoto +400 · 58

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 7 mph out 79°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

75°F

3:07p

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

4:07p

↑

8 mph · out

78°F

5:07p

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

6:07p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 79°F, wind 7 mph SE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Spencer Miles · RHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Coby Mayo 51 C +350 COOL 44 0.241 91.3 7.5% 13.3%vs RHP 411 18.6% 33.3% 17.5% 26

2 Pete Alonso 50 C +305 · 50 0.229 94.2 7.7% 31.2%vs RHP 402 21.1% 15.4% 16.9% 29

3 Samuel Basallo 41 D +500 COOL 118 0.188 90.2 7.3% 26.8%vs RHP 399 13.5% 0.0% 12.6% 21

4 Gunnar Henderson 38 D +500 COOL 143 0.175 89.2 5.4% 17.1%vs RHP 393 13.8% 7.7% 13.3% 32

5 Colton Cowser 38 D +750 COOL 144 0.151 88.0 6.7% 20.7%vs RHP 412 15.0% 10.0% 12.0% 16

6 Jackson Holliday 30 D +700 · 190 0.117 87.1 5.3% 15.4%vs RHP 389 4.5% 10.0% 7.7% 29

7 Leody Taveras 29 D +750 COOL 199 0.130 88.2 4.2% 12.3%vs RHP 403 4.7% 0.0% 7.4% 15

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 58 C +400 WARM 22 0.219 90.5 10.5% 26.6%vs RHP 400 19.4% 36.4% 25.7% 24

2 George Springer 41 D +525 WARM 119 0.162 88.5 7.5% 19.6%vs RHP 395 10.8% 0.0% 10.4% 24

3 Vladimir Guerrero 33 D — WARM 172 0.092 90.6 7.4% 9.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 39

4 Nathan Lukes 32 D +950 · 179 0.118 87.0 4.5% 16.1%vs RHP 382 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 35

5 Andres Gimenez 30 D +950 COOL 189 0.116 85.4 5.3% 9.8%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 26

6 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 194 0.110 86.2 4.9% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 22

7 Ernie Clement 29 D +950 COOL 201 0.108 84.1 4.0% 5.8%vs RHP 376 6.6% 0.0% 6.9% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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