TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.96×

SEA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 15 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+22 ↑

6:40p

+21 ↑

7:40p

+19 ↑

8:40p

+16 ↑

9:40p

+15 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +22

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 26 · vs Jump ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 26 · vs Woo → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 67

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +220 C+ ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +390 C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 62

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +475 C ●●●●○

2 Henry Bolte +625 D ●●●○○

3 Lawrence Butler +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 27.6% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ vs Jump Edge +220 0.190 · 89.8 · 10.0% 25.0% 27.6% F B O C+ 60

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Woo +475 0.208 · 89.2 · 8.3% 23.1% 29.2% F B O C 59

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Jump Edge +390 0.188 · 90.5 · 7.3% 15.4% 21.2% F B O C 54

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Jump +400 0.217 · 91.1 · 9.0% 7.7% 17.4% F B O C 57

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Jump Edge +390 0.155 · 90.2 · 7.8% 7.7% 12.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Woo +625 0.125 · 91.0 · 7.6% 23.1% 15.8% F B O D 48

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Woo Edge +400 0.137 · 89.6 · 7.5% 15.4% 10.9% F B O D 46

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Woo Edge +525 0.174 · 87.9 · 7.0% 12.5% 11.6% F B O D 47

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Woo Edge +625 0.103 · 86.6 · 3.7% 14.3% 9.5% F B O D 36

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Woo Edge +500 0.142 · 88.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Jump +700 0.094 · 87.0 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Jump +750 0.135 · 88.1 · 5.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 43

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Jump +625 0.119 · 87.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gage Jump — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bryan Woo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Gelof Bolte Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cal Raleigh +220 · 60

Zack Gelof +475 · 59

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 15 mph out 77°F open

+22

↑

15 mph · out

77°F

6:40p · peak

+21

↑

14 mph · out

73°F

7:40p

+19

↑

13 mph · out

70°F

8:40p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

67°F

9:40p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

64°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.96× 77°F, wind 15 mph SW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 60 C+ +220 · 13 0.190 89.8 10.0% 25.9%vs LHP 383 15.8% 25.0% 27.6% 28

2 Dominic Canzone 57 C +400 · 24 0.217 91.1 9.0% 25.0%vs LHP 404 14.8% 7.7% 17.4% 38

3 Randy Arozarena 54 C +390 WARM 33 0.188 90.5 7.3% 23.3%vs LHP 386 14.7% 15.4% 21.2% 30

4 Julio Rodríguez 50 C +390 WARM 52 0.155 90.2 7.8% 19.1%vs LHP 404 15.3% 7.7% 12.3% 35

5 Cole Young 43 D +750 COOL 104 0.135 88.1 5.8% 8.6%vs LHP 383 10.7% 0.0% 8.7% 28

6 J.P. Crawford 39 D +625 COOL 134 0.119 87.9 6.2% 9.1%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 31

7 Josh Naylor 37 D +700 COOL 153 0.094 87.0 5.4% 10.7%vs LHP 392 5.6% 0.0% 8.8% 40

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 59 C +475 WARM 15 0.208 89.2 8.3% 24.0%vs RHP 397 19.7% 23.1% 29.2% 31

2 Henry Bolte 48 D +625 WARM 62 0.125 91.0 7.6% 12.0%vs RHP 397 11.9% 23.1% 15.8% 33

3 Jonah Heim 47 D +525 WARM 65 0.174 87.9 7.0% 7.3%vs RHP 409 8.9% 12.5% 11.6% 30

4 Lawrence Butler 46 D +400 WARM 80 0.137 89.6 7.5% 19.1%vs RHP 408 9.4% 15.4% 10.9% 28

5 Carlos Cortes 43 D +500 COOL 102 0.142 88.5 6.8% 17.6%vs RHP 400 4.9% 0.0% 11.1% 24

6 Jeff Mcneil 36 D +625 WARM 160 0.103 86.6 3.7% 12.3%vs RHP 380 6.2% 14.3% 9.5% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.