TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.81×

PIT @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 11 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

1:20p

+14 ↑

2:20p

+13 ↑

3:20p

+11 ↑

4:20p

+9 ↑

5:20p

best window is early — 2:20p at +14

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 36 · vs Skenes ⟷ Esmerlyn Valdez conv 28 · vs Holmes → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 62

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +265 B ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +500 C ●●●●○

3 Carson Kelly +700 D ●●●○○

FADE Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 20

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Esmerlyn Valdez +575 C+ ●●●●○

2 Brandon Lowe +400 C ●●●○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 33.1% · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Skenes Edge +265 0.291 · 90.5 · 9.6% 38.5% 33.1% F B O B 70

· — Esmerlyn Valdez vs Holmes +575 0.282 · 91.9 · 10.3% 25.0% 30.5% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Skenes +500 0.181 · 88.1 · 6.3% 30.8% 24.6% F B O C 51

· — Brandon Lowe COOL vs Holmes Edge +400 0.219 · 90.9 · 7.7% 20.0% 20.8% F B O C 57

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Skenes +400 0.208 · 88.4 · 8.5% 15.4% 18.5% F B O C 55

· — Oneil Cruz COOL vs Holmes Edge +320 0.210 · 94.9 · 9.4% 8.3% 18.1% F B O C 58

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Skenes Edge +500 0.192 · 89.3 · 8.9% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Skenes +700 0.127 · 87.3 · 6.3% 22.2% 15.1% F B O D 43

· — Bryan Reynolds vs Holmes Edge +575 0.161 · 91.1 · 7.8% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 49

· — Jared Triolo vs Holmes — 0.070 · 86.6 · 3.6% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 33

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Skenes Edge +425 0.153 · 88.5 · 7.9% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 46

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Skenes — 0.093 · 85.9 · 3.0% 7.7% 8.9% F B O D 32

· — Ryan O'Hearn vs Holmes +525 0.184 · 89.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 48

· — Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Holmes Edge +700 0.123 · 86.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 40

· — Jake Mangum COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.086 · 85.5 · 3.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· — Nick Gonzales vs Holmes +850 0.088 · 86.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Paul Skenes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Clay Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Bregman Kelly Valdez Cruz Lowe Reynolds

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong +265 · 70

Esmerlyn Valdez +575 · 66

Alex Bregman +500 · 51

Brandon Lowe +400 · 57

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 11 mph out 85°F open

+13

↑

11 mph · out

80°F

1:20p

+14

↑

12 mph · slight_out

82°F

2:20p · peak

+13

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

3:20p

+11

↑

11 mph · slight_out

84°F

4:20p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

82°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.81× 85°F, wind 11 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 70 B +265 HOT 2 0.291 90.5 9.6% 28.3%vs RHP 397 23.0% 38.5% 33.1% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 55 C +400 · 31 0.208 88.4 8.5% 19.1%vs RHP 406 16.0% 15.4% 18.5% 37

3 Ian Happ 52 C +500 COOL 40 0.192 89.3 8.9% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.1% 0.0% 14.8% 18

4 Alex Bregman 51 C +500 WARM 43 0.181 88.1 6.3% 18.1%vs RHP 390 13.1% 30.8% 24.6% 42

5 Michael Busch 46 D +425 COOL 77 0.153 88.5 7.9% 12.4%vs RHP 403 12.9% 8.3% 10.1% 32

6 Carson Kelly 43 D +700 WARM 99 0.127 87.3 6.3% 9.3%vs RHP 403 8.5% 22.2% 15.1% 25

7 Nico Hoerner 32 D — WARM 177 0.093 85.9 3.0% 6.7%vs RHP 383 5.5% 7.7% 8.9% 42

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez 66 C+ +575 · 6 0.282 91.9 10.3% 27.6%vs RHP 395 19.6% 25.0% 30.5% 15

2 Oneil Cruz 58 C +320 COOL 21 0.210 94.9 9.4% 40.0%vs RHP 414 22.4% 8.3% 18.1% 30

3 Brandon Lowe 57 C +400 COOL 26 0.219 90.9 7.7% 25.3%vs RHP 390 16.8% 20.0% 20.8% 32

4 Bryan Reynolds 49 D +575 WARM 59 0.161 91.1 7.8% 14.3%vs RHP 410 11.1% 16.7% 10.6% 36

5 Ryan O'Hearn 48 D +525 · 61 0.184 89.3 6.2% 22.4%vs RHP 385 13.4% 0.0% 16.0% 0

6 Spencer Horwitz 40 D +700 COOL 128 0.123 86.8 5.7% 12.7%vs RHP 395 8.5% 0.0% 8.4% 33

7 Jared Triolo 33 D — WARM 170 0.070 86.6 3.6% 7.4%vs RHP 409 2.4% 11.1% 8.4% 18

8 Nick Gonzales 33 D +850 · 171 0.088 86.1 4.0% 8.9%vs RHP 397 5.9% 0.0% 7.6% 31

9 Jake Mangum 32 D — COOL 178 0.086 85.5 3.2% 8.6%vs RHP 393 4.1% 0.0% 7.9% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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