TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.18×

NYM @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 10 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:35p

+3 ↑

2:35p

+3 ↑

3:35p

+2 ↑

4:35p

+2 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at +3

Best of game Ben Rice conv 18 · vs Thornton ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 34 · vs Cole → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 89

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +320 C+ ●●●○○

2 Paul Goldschmidt +390 C ●●●○○

3 Aaron Judge +205 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 83

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +330 C ●●●●●

2 Juan Soto +255 C+ ●●●●●

3 Brett Baty +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 33.8% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Cole Edge +330 0.204 · 91.0 · 8.8% 41.7% 25.8% F B O C 58

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Cole Edge +255 0.253 · 92.3 · 10.9% 27.3% 33.8% F B O C+ 66

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Thornton +320 0.258 · 92.0 · 11.2% 16.7% 19.5% F B O C+ 66

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Thornton Edge +390 0.205 · 86.8 · 9.7% 12.5% 23.1% F B O C 57

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs Thornton Edge +205 0.276 · 94.0 · 13.6% 0.0% 29.9% F B O C+ 68

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Cole Edge +575 0.135 · 90.3 · 9.3% 14.3% 15.8% F B O D 46

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Cole +625 0.134 · 89.5 · 7.5% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 44

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Thornton +400 0.157 · 89.1 · 7.4% 15.4% 10.0% F B O D 47

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Cole +400 0.172 · 90.3 · 11.5% 0.0% 24.4% F B O D 49

· NYY Austin Wells vs Thornton — 0.121 · 89.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 15.1% F B O D 43

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Cole Edge +500 0.160 · 89.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 44

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Thornton Edge — 0.136 · 83.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 38

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Cole Edge +575 0.137 · 88.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 42

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Cole +575 0.128 · 86.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Cole Edge +750 0.118 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Thornton — 0.144 · 90.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gerrit Cole — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Zac Thornton — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Baty Bichette Judge Rice Goldschmidt

Legend

attack side — vs Thornton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Francisco Lindor +330 · 58

Juan Soto +255 · 66

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 10 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

73°F

1:35p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

74°F

2:35p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

74°F

3:35p

↑

12 mph · cross

75°F

4:35p

↑

11 mph · cross

74°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 76°F, wind 10 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 66 C+ +255 · 5 0.253 92.3 10.9% 31.8%vs RHP 401 20.4% 27.3% 33.8% 37

2 Francisco Lindor 58 C +330 · 19 0.204 91.0 8.8% 20.6%vs RHP 393 16.2% 41.7% 25.8% 38

3 Francisco Alvarez 49 D +400 WARM 55 0.172 90.3 11.5% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 24.4% 15

4 Brett Baty 46 D +575 HOT 74 0.135 90.3 9.3% 14.5%vs RHP 396 7.2% 14.3% 15.8% 17

5 Jared Young 44 D +500 COOL 91 0.160 89.9 7.7% 17.4%vs RHP 400 6.2% 0.0% 11.5% 25

6 Bo Bichette 44 D +625 WARM 93 0.134 89.5 7.5% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.6% 16.7% 10.6% 35

7 Carson Benge 42 D +575 COOL 111 0.137 88.6 7.6% 13.9%vs RHP 396 9.9% 0.0% 9.4% 29

8 Marcus Semien 41 D +575 COOL 121 0.128 86.6 7.3% 13.9%vs RHP 391 9.9% 0.0% 9.3% 35

9 A.J. Ewing 38 D +750 COOL 142 0.118 89.3 7.6% 12.0%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 32

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Aaron Judge 68 C+ +205 COOL 3 0.276 94.0 13.6% 45.5%vs LHP 404 21.8% 0.0% 29.9% 4

2 Ben Rice 66 C+ +320 COOL 7 0.258 92.0 11.2% 30.3%vs LHP 395 23.7% 16.7% 19.5% 34

3 Paul Goldschmidt 57 C +390 · 27 0.205 86.8 9.7% 34.4%vs LHP 390 16.5% 12.5% 23.1% 16

4 Cody Bellinger 47 D +400 COOL 67 0.157 89.1 7.4% 11.4%vs LHP 376 10.3% 15.4% 10.0% 41

5 Ryan Mcmahon 46 D — COOL 73 0.144 90.9 9.0% 0.0%vs LHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 7.4% 17

6 Austin Wells 43 D — WARM 98 0.121 89.2 7.6% 16.7%vs LHP 379 7.5% 0.0% 15.1% 23

7 Jose Caballero 38 D — · 140 0.136 83.9 6.1% 22.2%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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