TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ MIL

Neutral air · 1.01×

CIN @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph out 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:10p

+4 ↑

7:10p

+5 ↑

8:10p

+4 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +5

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 26 · vs Singer ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 33 · vs Proxy → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 90

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●●○

2 William Contreras — D ●●●●○

3 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●○

FADE MIL Bullpen Proxy · MIL

leak 44

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson — D ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 24.0% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs Proxy — 0.227 · 94.5 · 15.7% 41.7% 24.0% F B O C+ 64

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Singer — 0.201 · 91.7 · 10.7% 30.8% 22.0% F B O C 57

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.222 · 92.4 · 11.1% 22.2% 23.3% F B O C 59

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Proxy — 0.211 · 90.2 · 12.7% 16.7% 13.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Singer — 0.139 · 90.3 · 8.7% 36.4% 14.1% F B O D 46

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Singer Edge — 0.150 · 89.2 · 9.5% 22.2% 15.6% F B O D 46

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy — 0.173 · 91.1 · 12.0% 18.2% 16.1% F B O D 48

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Proxy — 0.213 · 88.4 · 11.3% 0.0% 21.6% F B O D 45

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Proxy — 0.113 · 89.3 · 4.2% 14.3% 6.8% F B O D 30

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.167 · 90.1 · 8.1% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 45

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Singer — 0.131 · 88.9 · 6.1% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 38

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.148 · 93.2 · 10.3% 9.1% 10.0% F B O D 45

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Proxy — 0.156 · 88.3 · 9.4% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 40

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Proxy — 0.204 · 88.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 45

· MIL Sal Frelick vs Singer Edge — 0.092 · 86.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.094 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for MIL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brady Singer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Stewart Stephenson Bauers Chourio Yelich Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz — · 64

Jackson Chourio — · 57

Jake Bauers — · 59

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 7 mph out 77°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

6:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

73°F

7:10p

↑

7 mph · out

71°F

8:10p

↑

7 mph · out

68°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · out

65°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 77°F, wind 7 mph NW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MIL Bullpen Proxy 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 64 C+ — HOT 12 0.227 94.5 15.7% 26.3% 402 18.1% 41.7% 24.0% 26

2 Sal Stewart 54 C — · 48 0.211 90.2 12.7% 21.5% 397 17.4% 16.7% 13.7% 37

3 Tyler Stephenson 48 D — · 86 0.173 91.1 12.0% 15.3% 392 10.3% 18.2% 16.1% 23

4 Eugenio Suarez 45 D — WARM 116 0.213 88.4 11.3% 22.2% 396 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 17

5 Jj Bleday 45 D — COOL 117 0.204 88.3 10.0% 16.1% 389 15.4% 0.0% 11.4% 26

6 Matt Mclain 40 D — COOL 157 0.156 88.3 9.4% 12.1% 391 10.0% 0.0% 12.8% 26

7 Dane Myers 30 D — COOL 209 0.113 89.3 4.2% 10.2% 384 6.2% 14.3% 6.8% 20

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.90 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 59 C — COOL 17 0.222 92.4 11.1% 28.6%vs RHP 402 19.8% 22.2% 23.3% 14

2 Jackson Chourio 57 C — COOL 25 0.201 91.7 10.7% 19.5%vs RHP 400 17.8% 30.8% 22.0% 44

3 Christian Yelich 46 D — WARM 75 0.150 89.2 9.5% 20.9%vs RHP 397 9.1% 22.2% 15.6% 26

4 William Contreras 46 D — HOT 79 0.139 90.3 8.7% 13.8%vs RHP 411 11.3% 36.4% 14.1% 26

5 Brice Turang 45 D — COOL 84 0.167 90.1 8.1% 24.2%vs RHP 407 10.7% 8.3% 11.6% 28

6 Garrett Mitchell 45 D — COOL 85 0.148 93.2 10.3% 22.2%vs RHP 415 7.8% 9.1% 10.0% 21

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D — WARM 147 0.131 88.9 6.1% 16.7%vs RHP 390 7.1% 11.1% 8.2% 24

8 David Hamilton 32 D — COOL 180 0.094 87.0 5.5% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.3% 0.0% 7.0% 17

9 Sal Frelick 31 D — WARM 187 0.092 86.0 4.8% 6.2%vs RHP 396 3.4% 0.0% 7.1% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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