TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ TB

Playable air · 1.07×

HOU @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Cam Smith conv 27 · vs Seymour ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 37 · vs Lambert → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 97

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith +500 C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes +500 D ●●○○○

3 Yordan Alvarez +305 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 60

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●●●●

3 Jonathan Aranda +525 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 35.0% · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Lambert +265 0.249 · 92.9 · 9.4% 38.5% 35.0% F B O C+ 67

· HOU Cam Smith vs Seymour Edge +500 0.190 · 89.1 · 10.5% 30.0% 24.9% F B O C 58

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Seymour +305 0.280 · 94.2 · 12.4% 0.0% 25.2% F B O C+ 62

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Seymour Edge +425 0.196 · 88.9 · 9.3% 8.3% 15.3% F B O C 54

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Seymour Edge +500 0.183 · 88.5 · 7.9% 7.7% 12.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Lambert Edge +950 0.139 · 86.0 · 5.5% 44.4% 14.4% F B O D 44

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Lambert Edge +525 0.149 · 91.1 · 8.2% 27.3% 15.1% F B O D 49

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Seymour Edge +500 0.165 · 86.1 · 6.8% 15.4% 11.7% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Seymour Edge +625 0.160 · 88.9 · 7.8% 12.5% 10.6% F B O D 47

· TB Yandy Diaz HOT vs Lambert +525 0.166 · 91.1 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 42

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Seymour Edge +575 0.153 · 85.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 40

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Lambert — 0.155 · 85.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 39

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Seymour — 0.155 · 88.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 48

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Lambert — 0.098 · 85.2 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Lambert Edge +625 0.141 · 87.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.120 · 85.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 35

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ian Seymour — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Peter Lambert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Smith Paredes Caminero Aranda Palacios

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +265 · 67

Cam Smith +500 · 58

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 62 C+ +305 COOL 10 0.280 94.2 12.4% 23.3%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 34

2 Cam Smith 58 C +500 WARM 20 0.190 89.1 10.5% 23.3%vs LHP 410 14.1% 30.0% 24.9% 23

3 Christian Walker 54 C +425 COOL 35 0.196 88.9 9.3% 23.8%vs LHP 393 16.8% 8.3% 15.3% 34

4 Jeremy Peña 50 C +500 WARM 53 0.183 88.5 7.9% 11.1%vs LHP 387 14.9% 7.7% 12.1% 36

5 Taylor Trammell 48 D — · 63 0.155 88.1 10.8% 0.0%vs LHP 413 10.9% 0.0% 9.3% 19

6 Yainer Diaz 47 D +625 WARM 66 0.160 88.9 7.8% 11.1%vs LHP 391 10.8% 12.5% 10.6% 23

7 Isaac Paredes 46 D +500 WARM 71 0.165 86.1 6.8% 6.2%vs LHP 377 12.1% 15.4% 11.7% 35

8 Jose Altuve 40 D +575 · 125 0.153 85.5 6.5% 18.8%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 35

9 Christian Vazquez 35 D — COOL 163 0.120 85.9 4.5% 9.1%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 12

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 67 C+ +265 · 4 0.249 92.9 9.4% 40.8%vs RHP 415 25.7% 38.5% 35.0% 37

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D +525 WARM 58 0.149 91.1 8.2% 16.7%vs RHP 392 12.5% 27.3% 15.1% 30

3 Richie Palacios 44 D +950 WARM 89 0.139 86.0 5.5% 18.8%vs RHP 388 8.3% 44.4% 14.4% 23

4 Yandy Diaz 42 D +525 HOT 107 0.166 91.1 7.0% 26.4%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 44

5 Cedric Mullins 40 D +625 COOL 129 0.141 87.9 5.3% 16.1%vs RHP 387 11.3% 0.0% 8.4% 23

6 Jonny Deluca 39 D — COOL 133 0.155 85.5 4.7% 22.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 27

7 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 169 0.098 85.2 3.8% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.0% 0.0% 8.6% 11

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 216 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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