TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.85×

LAD @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 13 mph in 86°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-16 ↑

4:10p

-16 ↑

5:10p

-10 ↑

6:10p

-4 ↑

7:10p

+2 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +2

Best of game Max Muncy conv 24 · vs Phillips ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Glasnow → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 69

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +425 C ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts +700 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Tucker +625 D ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 11

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +425 D ●●●●○

2 Owen Caissie +850 D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 20.7% · 14D pace 26.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Phillips Edge +425 0.243 · 90.5 · 10.1% 26.7% 20.7% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Glasnow Edge +425 0.224 · 92.6 · 10.1% 30.0% 19.8% F B O D 48

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Phillips +700 0.181 · 90.1 · 7.7% 25.0% 16.5% F B O D 44

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Phillips Edge +625 0.136 · 88.7 · 6.8% 25.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· MIA Owen Caissie vs Glasnow Edge +850 0.190 · 91.0 · 10.8% 16.7% 15.7% F B O D 43

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Glasnow +500 0.234 · 91.5 · 10.7% 0.0% 27.2% F B O D 44

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Glasnow — 0.147 · 87.0 · 4.2% 15.4% 8.3% F B O D 29

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Phillips Edge +625 0.156 · 89.5 · 8.0% 8.3% 8.6% F B O D 39

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Glasnow +850 0.138 · 89.1 · 7.1% 7.7% 7.6% F B O D 31

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Phillips Edge +850 0.136 · 87.7 · 6.4% 8.3% 6.3% F B O D 34

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Glasnow Edge +950 0.116 · 87.4 · 5.4% 8.3% 5.8% F B O D 26

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Phillips +525 0.156 · 90.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Phillips — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tyler Glasnow — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Stowers Hernández Caissie

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy +425 · 56

Kyle Stowers +425 · 48

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 13 mph in 86°F retractable

-16

↑

13 mph · in

86°F

4:10p

-16

↑

14 mph · in

86°F

5:10p

-10

↑

13 mph · cross

82°F

6:10p

-4

↑

12 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.85× 86°F, wind 13 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 56 C +425 COOL 29 0.243 90.5 10.1% 26.9%vs RHP 410 21.9% 26.7% 20.7% 43

2 Mookie Betts 44 D +700 · 88 0.181 90.1 7.7% 17.3%vs RHP 389 12.5% 25.0% 16.5% 36

3 Freddie Freeman 39 D +625 COOL 136 0.156 89.5 8.0% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.8% 8.3% 8.6% 19

4 Kyle Tucker 37 D +625 WARM 155 0.136 88.7 6.8% 11.5%vs RHP 390 8.8% 25.0% 8.9% 31

5 Teoscar Hernandez 36 D +525 HOT 159 0.156 90.2 9.1% 13.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 30

6 Tommy Edman 34 D +850 COOL 168 0.136 87.7 6.4% 7.1%vs RHP 396 8.7% 8.3% 6.3% 38

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 48 D +425 HOT 60 0.224 92.6 10.1% 24.3%vs RHP 400 14.7% 30.0% 19.8% 20

2 Heriberto Hernández 44 D +500 WARM 87 0.234 91.5 10.7% 25.4%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 27.2% 30

3 Owen Caissie 43 D +850 · 97 0.190 91.0 10.8% 25.9%vs RHP 399 14.1% 16.7% 15.7% 13

4 Otto Lopez 31 D +850 COOL 185 0.138 89.1 7.1% 8.6%vs RHP 402 6.3% 7.7% 7.6% 39

5 Javier Sanoja 29 D — · 198 0.147 87.0 4.2% 10.4%vs RHP 381 7.8% 15.4% 8.3% 45

6 Jakob Marsee 26 D +950 WARM 211 0.116 87.4 5.4% 11.4%vs RHP 382 7.7% 8.3% 5.8% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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