TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.21×

SD @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 14 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

1:05p

+12 ↑

2:05p

+12 ↑

3:05p

+12 ↑

4:05p

+12 ↑

5:05p

the 2:05p window peaks +12

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 38 · vs King ⟷ Manny Machado conv 14 · vs Perdomo → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Michael King RHP · SD

leak 64

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +525 D ●○○○○

3 Drew Gilbert +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Cesar Perdomo LHP

leak 3

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado +525 D ●●○○○

2 Jackson Merrill +625 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Cronenworth +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 25.8% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs King Edge +390 0.260 · 93.0 · 10.2% 50.0% 25.8% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Manny Machado vs Perdomo Edge +525 0.190 · 90.5 · 8.0% 18.2% 10.8% F B O D 44

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs King Edge +525 0.191 · 92.5 · 9.8% 7.7% 10.4% F B O D 46

· — Jackson Merrill HOT vs Perdomo +625 0.186 · 91.3 · 9.0% 8.3% 9.7% F B O D 43

· — Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Perdomo +950 0.081 · 87.0 · 4.4% 10.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· — Fernando Tatis COOL vs Perdomo Edge — 0.165 · 92.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 37

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs King Edge +750 0.141 · 86.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs King Edge — 0.126 · 87.6 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 28

· — Freddy Fermin HOT vs Perdomo Edge — 0.107 · 87.6 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

· — Xander Bogaerts vs Perdomo Edge +850 0.099 · 89.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 4.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Michael King — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cesar Perdomo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Machado

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +390 · 61

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 14 mph out 75°F open

+10

↑

14 mph · out

74°F

1:05p

+12

↑

16 mph · out

76°F

2:05p · peak

+12

↑

16 mph · out

76°F

3:05p

+12

↑

16 mph · out

76°F

4:05p

+12

↑

16 mph · out

75°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 75°F, wind 14 mph W (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 61 C+ +390 HOT 11 0.260 93.0 10.2% 29.8%vs RHP 398 22.6% 50.0% 25.8% 30

2 Bryce Eldridge 46 D +525 COOL 82 0.191 92.5 9.8% 17.5%vs RHP 398 17.9% 7.7% 10.4% 32

3 Drew Gilbert 32 D +750 COOL 183 0.141 86.4 6.5% 16.3%vs RHP 394 6.4% 0.0% 7.5% 20

4 Jung Hoo Lee 28 D — WARM 204 0.126 87.6 4.5% 9.5%vs RHP 382 5.3% 0.0% 6.4% 36

vs Cesar Perdomo · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 44 D +525 WARM 95 0.190 90.5 8.0% 16.1%vs LHP 398 17.1% 18.2% 10.8% 29

2 Jackson Merrill 43 D +625 HOT 105 0.186 91.3 9.0% 12.1%vs LHP 410 15.8% 8.3% 9.7% 37

3 Fernando Tatis 37 D — COOL 154 0.165 92.9 9.0% 50.0%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 38

4 Xander Bogaerts 28 D +850 WARM 205 0.099 89.3 6.1% 3.9%vs LHP 400 7.3% 0.0% 4.4% 26

5 Freddy Fermin 27 D — HOT 208 0.107 87.6 5.1% 11.1%vs LHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 6.2% 3

6 Jake Cronenworth 25 D +950 COOL 213 0.081 87.0 4.4% 11.1%vs LHP 382 3.1% 10.0% 6.2% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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