TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ SF

Neutral air · 1.02×

CIN @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 8 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:45p

+2 ↑

7:45p

+1 ↑

8:45p

+1 ↑

9:45p

+0 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +4

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 25 · vs Singer ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 19 · vs Houser → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 91

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.92 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +330 C ●●●●○

2 Drew Gilbert +750 D ●●●○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Adrian Houser RHP · SF

leak 89

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +525 D ●●●○○

2 Matt Mclain +850 D ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 10.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Singer Edge +330 0.227 · 92.5 · 9.8% 25.0% 25.4% F B O C 56

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Houser Edge +625 0.212 · 93.8 · 10.9% 6.7% 13.1% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Houser Edge +525 0.222 · 88.8 · 9.3% 25.0% 13.8% F B O D 48

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Houser +850 0.161 · 88.0 · 9.5% 25.0% 13.4% F B O D 42

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Singer Edge +750 0.134 · 86.4 · 6.4% 20.0% 13.4% F B O D 37

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Houser +700 0.209 · 90.1 · 10.4% 13.3% 11.5% F B O D 49

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Houser +750 0.165 · 91.2 · 10.4% 7.7% 13.2% F B O D 43

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Houser +1000 0.109 · 89.6 · 6.7% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 33

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Houser +525 0.201 · 88.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 41

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Singer Edge +950 0.136 · 87.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.9% ← leak BRK 17.3% OFF 15.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.8% 11.1% 4.5% 13.3% C 50 +625

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Sal Stewart R

16.2% 9.0% 7.5% 12.5% D 49 +700

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.4% 6.8% 5.1% 9.6% D 48 +525

102

Tyler Stephenson R

15.9% 7.1% 5.3% 12.3% D 43 +750

109

Matt Mclain R

11.7% 10.3% 4.2% 10.5% D 42 +850

113

Eugenio Suarez R

12.9% 6.5% 5.0% 10.8% D 41 +525

165

Dane Myers R

4.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.1% D 33 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.9% usage) carries Houser's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.7% ← leak BRK 41.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.0% 10.0% 10.6% C 56 +330

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

149

Drew Gilbert L Edge

5.1% 6.1% 4.5% D 37 +750

175

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.5% 2.3% 2.5% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.7% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 3 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bleday Mclain Devers Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +330 · 56

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 8 mph out 75°F open

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

6:45p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

7:45p

↑

6 mph · out

70°F

8:45p

↑

6 mph · out

68°F

9:45p

↑

6 mph · out

67°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 75°F, wind 8 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Adrian Houser · RHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 50 C +625 COOL 50 0.212 93.8 10.9% 21.3%vs RHP 398 16.1% 6.7% 13.1% 38

2 Sal Stewart 49 D +700 COOL 55 0.209 90.1 10.4% 22.7%vs RHP 397 16.2% 13.3% 11.5% 48

3 Jj Bleday 48 D +525 COOL 60 0.222 88.8 9.3% 21.9%vs RHP 387 22.2% 25.0% 13.8% 38

4 Tyler Stephenson 43 D +750 · 102 0.165 91.2 10.4% 20.7%vs RHP 392 8.7% 7.7% 13.2% 27

5 Matt Mclain 42 D +850 WARM 109 0.161 88.0 9.5% 14.3%vs RHP 394 16.7% 25.0% 13.4% 36

6 Eugenio Suarez 41 D +525 COOL 113 0.201 88.7 9.7% 26.9%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 33

7 Dane Myers 33 D +1000 COOL 165 0.109 89.6 6.7% 12.5%vs RHP 384 5.5% 11.1% 6.9% 37

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.92 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 56 C +330 · 26 0.227 92.5 9.8% 26.5%vs RHP 398 18.8% 25.0% 25.4% 34

2 Drew Gilbert 37 D +750 HOT 149 0.134 86.4 6.4% 16.7%vs RHP 392 6.3% 20.0% 13.4% 21

3 Jung Hoo Lee 32 D +950 COOL 175 0.136 87.0 4.8% 11.9%vs RHP 382 5.9% 0.0% 7.5% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

7 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.