TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ SEA

T-Mobile Park is live · 1.25×

PHI @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph out 80°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:40p

+8 ↑

7:40p

+7 ↑

8:40p

+6 ↑

9:40p

+6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +10

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 34 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 30 · vs Kirby → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 99

2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●●●●

2 Cal Raleigh +330 C ●●●○○

3 Julio Rodríguez +425 C ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 68

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +235 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +425 C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Nola +500 0.191 · 90.7 · 8.5% 38.5% 29.4% F B O C 59

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Kirby Edge +235 0.287 · 92.8 · 11.0% 25.0% 35.0% F B O C+ 69

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Nola Edge +330 0.144 · 89.3 · 10.7% 25.0% 16.3% F B O C 53

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Nola +425 0.159 · 90.0 · 9.2% 15.4% 14.8% F B O C 52

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Kirby Edge +425 0.238 · 90.2 · 8.8% 8.3% 18.8% F B O C 56

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Nola Edge +400 0.226 · 91.0 · 10.7% 7.7% 18.0% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Nola Edge +700 0.137 · 88.7 · 6.5% 16.7% 10.7% F B O D 45

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Kirby Edge +750 0.161 · 89.6 · 7.8% 10.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Kirby +850 0.142 · 90.6 · 6.4% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 41

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Kirby Edge +750 0.147 · 89.1 · 6.4% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 41

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Kirby +700 0.145 · 88.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Nola Edge +625 0.101 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Kirby +850 0.126 · 89.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Kirby Edge — 0.088 · 87.1 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 39.4% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.6% 14.9% 30.0% 17.4% C+ 69 +235

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.5% 12.8% 6.9% 11.0% C 56 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.0% 15.2% 3.7% 8.7% D 45 +750

116

Trea Turner R

7.9% 4.3% 2.4% 6.0% D 41 +700

117

Alec Bohm R

4.6% 6.7% 10.5% 5.8% D 41 +850

118

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.6% 3.7% 4.8% 5.9% D 41 +750

153

J.T. Realmuto R

3.7% 6.2% 4.2% 4.4% D 35 +850

187

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 1.4% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.9% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 16.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Randy Arozarena R

8.2% 8.0% 6.6% 7.8% C 59 +500

Dominic Canzone L Edge

14.8% 10.9% 8.3% 12.3% C 59 +400

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.7% 15.4% 12.5% 12.2% C 53 +330

Julio Rodríguez R

10.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.2% C 52 +425

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Cole Young L Edge

4.1% 8.6% 1.6% 4.6% D 45 +700

141

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.4% 8.0% 1.5% 4.7% D 38 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.9% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Arozarena Raleigh Rodríguez Young

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Randy Arozarena +500 · 59

Kyle Schwarber +235 · 69

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph out 80°F retractable

+10

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

8:40p

↑

6 mph · out

69°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · out

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 80°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +235 COOL 4 0.287 92.8 11.0% 42.9%vs RHP 401 23.0% 25.0% 35.0% 37

2 Bryce Harper 56 C +425 · 24 0.238 90.2 8.8% 34.4%vs RHP 402 18.9% 8.3% 18.8% 30

3 Brandon Marsh 45 D +750 COOL 82 0.161 89.6 7.8% 19.2%vs RHP 391 11.9% 10.0% 10.9% 28

4 Trea Turner 41 D +700 COOL 116 0.145 88.6 6.5% 19.4%vs RHP 392 13.0% 0.0% 9.7% 31

5 Alec Bohm 41 D +850 WARM 117 0.142 90.6 6.4% 13.8%vs RHP 397 10.7% 9.1% 8.8% 41

6 Bryson Stott 41 D +750 COOL 118 0.147 89.1 6.4% 8.8%vs RHP 385 7.4% 9.1% 8.6% 36

7 J.T. Realmuto 35 D +850 COOL 153 0.126 89.8 5.5% 16.7%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 30

8 Justin Crawford 29 D — COOL 187 0.088 87.1 3.1% 4.3%vs RHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 7.0% 31

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.36 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Randy Arozarena 59 C +500 · 15 0.191 90.7 8.5% 26.8%vs RHP 387 15.0% 38.5% 29.4% 35

2 Dominic Canzone 59 C +400 COOL 18 0.226 91.0 10.7% 24.6%vs RHP 402 15.0% 7.7% 18.0% 38

3 Cal Raleigh 53 C +330 WARM 33 0.144 89.3 10.7% 11.3%vs RHP 391 14.3% 25.0% 16.3% 27

4 Julio Rodríguez 52 C +425 WARM 37 0.159 90.0 9.2% 18.6%vs RHP 405 16.7% 15.4% 14.8% 36

5 Cole Young 45 D +700 COOL 83 0.137 88.7 6.5% 17.3%vs RHP 385 11.9% 16.7% 10.7% 38

6 Josh Naylor 38 D +625 COOL 141 0.101 87.6 6.6% 11.5%vs RHP 392 6.4% 0.0% 8.9% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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