TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.95×

MIL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 7 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:10p

-5 ↑

8:10p

-6 ↑

9:10p

-6 ↑

10:10p

-7 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -4

Best of game Bo Bichette conv 21 · vs Harrison ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 18 · vs Thornton → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 90

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bo Bichette +575 D ●●●○○

2 Carson Benge +750 D ●●●○○

3 Jared Young — D ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 9

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +475 C ●●●○○

2 Joey Ortiz +850 D ●●○○○

3 Garrett Mitchell — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Thornton +475 0.230 · 92.5 · 11.3% 16.7% 19.1% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Harrison Edge +575 0.129 · 89.6 · 6.6% 27.3% 14.8% F B O D 38

· NYM Carson Benge vs Harrison +750 0.150 · 89.3 · 7.2% 27.3% 14.1% F B O D 41

· MIL Joey Ortiz HOT vs Thornton Edge +850 0.128 · 88.5 · 6.2% 20.0% 11.1% F B O D 38

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Thornton — 0.158 · 92.9 · 10.7% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 46

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Harrison — 0.176 · 90.3 · 7.5% 14.3% 8.9% F B O D 40

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Thornton — 0.096 · 86.6 · 5.9% 16.7% 5.9% F B O D 33

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Harrison Edge +400 0.183 · 91.3 · 7.9% 9.1% 11.9% F B O D 43

· MIL Christian Yelich HOT vs Thornton — 0.142 · 89.0 · 9.6% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 42

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Thornton Edge +525 0.123 · 90.2 · 8.4% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 39

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Thornton Edge +400 0.183 · 91.9 · 10.9% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 49

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Harrison Edge +700 0.168 · 90.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Harrison Edge +700 0.136 · 86.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Thornton +850 0.172 · 90.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 43

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Harrison +950 0.119 · 89.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Harrison — 0.115 · 90.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.8% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 3.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L

15.0% 12.5% 12.8% 14.0% C 57 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.3% 13.8% 5.3% 12.4% D 49 +400

Garrett Mitchell L

15.4% 11.4% 6.1% 12.9% D 46 —

101

Brice Turang L

8.9% 9.3% 1.6% 7.6% D 43 +850

108

Christian Yelich L

9.5% 8.7% 13.8% 9.8% D 42 —

135

William Contreras R Edge

8.5% 9.2% 0.0% 7.8% D 39 +525

139

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.2% 5.6% 0.0% 4.3% D 38 +850

163

David Hamilton L

3.8% 6.4% 0.0% 3.8% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.8% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.1% ← leak BRK 30.4% OFF 9.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 7.0% 6.1% 9.3% D 43 +400

115

Carson Benge L

6.8% 8.7% 6.2% 7.2% D 41 +750

123

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

16.0% 14.9% 16.7% 15.7% D 40 +700

125

Jared Young L

6.8% 7.1% 12.9% 7.9% D 40 —

138

Bo Bichette R Edge

5.2% 10.2% 0.0% 6.2% D 38 +575

155

Marcus Semien R Edge

9.3% 2.0% 6.5% 6.6% D 35 +700

158

Brett Baty L

8.6% 13.8% 3.9% 8.9% D 34 —

169

A.J. Ewing L

8.1% 12.1% 0.0% 7.7% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.1% usage) carries Harrison's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Mitchell Ortiz Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs Harrison fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 7 mph cross 72°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

72°F

7:10p · peak

-5

↑

7 mph · cross

70°F

8:10p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

69°F

9:10p

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

68°F

10:10p

-7

↑

8 mph · cross

67°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 72°F, wind 7 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 57 C +475 COOL 20 0.230 92.5 11.3% 24.0%vs LHP 401 19.8% 16.7% 19.1% 28

2 Jackson Chourio 49 D +400 COOL 54 0.183 91.9 10.9% 31.2%vs LHP 401 15.4% 0.0% 13.3% 35

3 Garrett Mitchell 46 D — COOL 76 0.158 92.9 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 415 7.8% 16.7% 10.3% 17

4 Brice Turang 43 D +850 COOL 101 0.172 90.4 8.3% 5.6%vs LHP 407 10.4% 0.0% 7.7% 24

5 Christian Yelich 42 D — HOT 108 0.142 89.0 9.6% 16.7%vs LHP 400 8.0% 11.1% 7.5% 26

6 William Contreras 39 D +525 HOT 135 0.123 90.2 8.4% 11.1%vs LHP 415 9.3% 9.1% 7.5% 39

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D +850 HOT 139 0.128 88.5 6.2% 12.5%vs LHP 391 7.0% 20.0% 11.1% 28

8 David Hamilton 33 D — COOL 163 0.096 86.6 5.9% 6.3% 386 4.8% 16.7% 5.9% 23

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 43 D +400 COOL 98 0.183 91.3 7.9% 16.0%vs LHP 397 12.4% 9.1% 11.9% 35

2 Carson Benge 41 D +750 · 115 0.150 89.3 7.2% 20.8%vs LHP 396 11.3% 27.3% 14.1% 35

3 Francisco Alvarez 40 D +700 COOL 123 0.168 90.1 10.4% 16.7%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 13

4 Jared Young 40 D — COOL 125 0.176 90.3 7.5% 13.8% 400 7.5% 14.3% 8.9% 29

5 Bo Bichette 38 D +575 WARM 138 0.129 89.6 6.6% 18.5%vs LHP 385 10.2% 27.3% 14.8% 34

6 Marcus Semien 35 D +700 COOL 155 0.136 86.6 6.8% 11.5%vs LHP 391 11.3% 0.0% 8.3% 28

7 Brett Baty 34 D — HOT 158 0.115 90.0 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 397 7.0% 0.0% 5.2% 11

8 A.J. Ewing 32 D +950 COOL 169 0.119 89.4 7.3% 12.5%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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