TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.31×

COL @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 6 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:45p

+1 ↑

7:45p

+2 ↑

8:45p

+4 ↑

9:45p

+5 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 10:45p window peaks +5

Best of game Mickey Moniak conv 22 · vs Alvarez ⟷ Keibert Ruiz conv 12 · vs Proxy → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 70

0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mickey Moniak +575 C+ ●●●○○

2 Willi Castro +750 D ●●○○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +750 D ●○○○○

FADE COL Bullpen Proxy · COL

leak 59

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Keibert Ruiz +700 D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams +425 C+ ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews +425 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: 10.0% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak ✶ vs Alvarez +575 0.273 · 89.5 · 7.7% 18.2% 25.2% F B O C+ 62

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Proxy +425 0.250 · 89.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 19.8% F B O C+ 65

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Proxy +425 0.147 · 90.8 · 9.8% 9.1% 10.7% F B O C 54

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Proxy +700 0.157 · 88.3 · 8.4% 7.7% 10.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Alvarez Edge +750 0.156 · 88.0 · 6.9% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 48

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Proxy +700 0.163 · 88.3 · 5.0% 12.5% 11.1% F B O D 48

· WSH Jacob Young vs Proxy +950 0.147 · 88.3 · 6.2% 9.1% 10.3% F B O D 48

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Alvarez Edge +750 0.119 · 87.2 · 6.0% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 41

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Alvarez +950 0.190 · 84.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 46

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Alvarez +850 0.152 · 83.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· COL Troy Johnston vs Alvarez — 0.112 · 89.5 · 3.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Proxy — 0.034 · 85.2 · 0.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 53.4% ← leak FB 42.6% OFF 4.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L

20.0% 9.2% 2.0% 10.0% C+ 62 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

6.8% 10.3% 5.0% 8.2% D 48 +750

Jake Mccarthy L

1.2% 6.2% 5.8% 4.9% D 46 +950

119

Tj Rumfield L

1.8% 5.4% 5.3% 4.3% D 41 +850

121

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% D 41 +750

157

Troy Johnston L

2.4% 2.3% 1.6% 2.2% D 35 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (53.4% usage) carries Alvarez's damage — BRK is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for COL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Alvarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 6 mph in 78°F open

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

6:45p

↑

5 mph · in

75°F

7:45p

↑

4 mph · in

73°F

8:45p

↑

2 mph · in

71°F

9:45p

↑

1 mph · in

69°F

10:45p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.31× 78°F, wind 6 mph N (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Moniak ✶ 62 C+ +575 WARM 11 0.273 89.5 7.7% 17.6%vs LHP 415 18.0% 18.2% 25.2% 30

2 Willi Castro 48 D +750 WARM 61 0.156 88.0 6.9% 14.3%vs LHP 410 11.9% 16.7% 12.5% 32

3 Jake Mccarthy 46 D +950 COOL 77 0.190 84.9 5.3% 26.7%vs LHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 16.1% 40

4 Tj Rumfield 41 D +850 · 119 0.152 83.9 5.1% 6.9%vs LHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 9.9% 28

5 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D +750 WARM 121 0.119 87.2 6.0% 6.2%vs LHP 408 8.0% 11.1% 7.4% 20

6 Troy Johnston 35 D — WARM 157 0.112 89.5 3.5% 4.3%vs LHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 8.1% 15

vs COL Bullpen Proxy 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 65 C+ +425 COOL 12 0.250 89.5 10.2% 20.7% 395 33.3% 0.0% 19.8% 24

2 Dylan Crews 54 C +425 · 46 0.147 90.8 9.8% 12.7% 407 15.2% 9.1% 10.7% 33

3 Daylen Lile 52 C +700 · 57 0.157 88.3 8.4% 8.8% 400 10.3% 7.7% 10.7% 42

4 Keibert Ruiz 48 D +700 COOL 86 0.163 88.3 5.0% 8.7% 378 9.5% 12.5% 11.1% 26

5 Jacob Young 48 D +950 WARM 87 0.147 88.3 6.2% 10.5% 399 7.5% 9.1% 10.3% 32

6 Nasim Nunez 27 D — COOL 206 0.034 85.2 0.3% 1.5% 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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