TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.04×

TEX @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 29 · vs deGrom ⟷ Jake Burger conv 25 · vs Kay → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 84

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +390 C+ ●●●●●

3 Tristan Peters +850 D ●●●●○

FADE Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 29

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Burger +425 C ●●●●○

2 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●○○○

3 Corey Seager +425 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs deGrom Edge +330 0.293 · 94.0 · 13.3% 23.1% 35.8% F B O C+ 69

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs deGrom +390 0.252 · 90.8 · 11.4% 30.8% 27.9% F B O C+ 64

· TEX Jake Burger vs Kay Edge +425 0.180 · 89.8 · 9.3% 25.0% 25.4% F B O C 56

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Kay — 0.241 · 92.2 · 9.4% 12.5% 19.1% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Corey Seager vs Kay +425 0.189 · 91.5 · 11.0% 16.7% 13.9% F B O C 56

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Kay Edge +500 0.202 · 89.4 · 7.7% 15.4% 14.7% F B O C 52

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs deGrom Edge +390 0.217 · 88.9 · 10.4% 7.7% 16.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters vs deGrom Edge +850 0.167 · 87.2 · 6.8% 36.4% 18.4% F B O D 46

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Kay Edge +750 0.174 · 88.7 · 7.0% 7.7% 12.0% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs deGrom Edge +750 0.143 · 89.3 · 6.0% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs deGrom — 0.129 · 87.8 · 6.3% 7.7% 8.7% F B O D 37

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs deGrom Edge +575 0.177 · 88.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 45

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Kay +575 0.157 · 92.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 47

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs deGrom Edge +750 0.122 · 87.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· TEX Evan Carter vs Kay +950 0.126 · 87.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 40

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Kay — 0.040 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 28.3% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L

14.0% 12.1% 3.3% 10.9% C+ 60 —

Jake Burger R Edge

9.9% 11.6% 11.4% 10.7% C 56 +425

Corey Seager L

15.0% 13.0% 17.6% 14.9% C 56 +425

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.0% 10.3% 12.0% 7.3% C 52 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

7.9% 6.1% 0.0% 6.3% D 47 +750

Brandon Nimmo L

8.0% 16.7% 7.7% 10.4% D 47 +575

126

Evan Carter L

7.6% 4.1% 0.0% 5.6% D 40 +950

208

Nicky Lopez L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.2% ← leak BRK 42.9% OFF 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

23.6% 16.9% 15.4% 20.2% C+ 69 +330

Miguel Vargas R

16.7% 11.4% 13.5% 14.8% C+ 64 +390

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.6% 10.9% 13.6% 12.4% C 55 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.0% 4.9% 0.0% 5.5% D 46 +850

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

11.9% 4.4% 5.3% 8.5% D 45 +575

140

Braden Montgomery S Edge

6.0% 2.9% 2.2% 4.2% D 38 +750

147

Chase Meidroth R

4.4% 5.6% 3.8% 4.6% D 37 —

148

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.5% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.2% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Burger Seager Langford Murakami Vargas Peters

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Munetaka Murakami +330 · 69

Miguel Vargas +390 · 64

Jake Burger +425 · 56

Tristan Peters +850 · 46

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 60 C+ — WARM 14 0.241 92.2 9.4% 24.4% 396 21.1% 12.5% 19.1% 17

2 Jake Burger 56 C +425 WARM 23 0.180 89.8 9.3% 31.8%vs LHP 400 16.1% 25.0% 25.4% 24

3 Corey Seager 56 C +425 WARM 25 0.189 91.5 11.0% 20.0%vs LHP 394 16.7% 16.7% 13.9% 35

4 Wyatt Langford 52 C +500 COOL 38 0.202 89.4 7.7% 18.2%vs LHP 398 16.3% 15.4% 14.7% 40

5 Ezequiel Duran 47 D +750 WARM 66 0.174 88.7 7.0% 15.0%vs LHP 393 12.4% 7.7% 12.0% 31

6 Brandon Nimmo 47 D +575 COOL 68 0.157 92.1 9.1% 17.9%vs LHP 403 9.9% 0.0% 9.7% 40

7 Evan Carter 40 D +950 · 126 0.126 87.9 6.7% 0.0%vs LHP 374 7.1% 0.0% 6.0% 30

8 Nicky Lopez 23 D — · 208 0.040 84.4 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 6.0% 16

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 69 C+ +330 · 3 0.293 94.0 13.3% 39.0%vs RHP 404 19.7% 23.1% 35.8% 29

2 Miguel Vargas 64 C+ +390 · 7 0.252 90.8 11.4% 17.2%vs RHP 393 21.2% 30.8% 27.9% 39

3 Colson Montgomery 55 C +390 · 29 0.217 88.9 10.4% 24.3%vs RHP 399 21.3% 7.7% 16.4% 27

4 Tristan Peters 46 D +850 WARM 71 0.167 87.2 6.8% 13.0%vs RHP 376 10.8% 36.4% 18.4% 32

5 Andrew Benintendi 45 D +575 COOL 80 0.177 88.9 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 388 12.8% 0.0% 12.2% 29

6 Braden Montgomery 38 D +750 WARM 140 0.143 89.3 6.0% 18.2%vs RHP 390 7.0% 7.7% 10.0% 35

7 Chase Meidroth 37 D — COOL 147 0.129 87.8 6.3% 16.0%vs RHP 379 8.0% 7.7% 8.7% 39

8 Sam Antonacci 37 D +750 COOL 148 0.122 87.4 6.9% 13.1%vs RHP 390 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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