TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.88×

TB @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:40p

-7 ↑

7:40p

-6 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -4

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 14 · vs Jobe ⟷ Colt Keith conv 11 · vs Seymour → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Jackson Jobe RHP · DET

leak 87

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +330 C+ ●●○○○

2 Taylor Walls — D ●○○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 81

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colt Keith — D ●●○○○

2 Gleyber Torres +750 D ●○○○○

3 Dillon Dingler +625 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 7.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Jobe +330 0.254 · 92.9 · 11.3% 7.7% 20.2% F B O C+ 62

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Seymour Edge +625 0.231 · 88.8 · 10.1% 0.0% 14.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Seymour — 0.151 · 89.1 · 8.6% 12.5% 10.0% F B O D 42

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.075 · 85.6 · 4.5% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 30

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Jobe Edge +525 0.136 · 91.0 · 9.8% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 45

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Seymour Edge +750 0.123 · 86.2 · 8.0% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 39

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Jobe +700 0.162 · 90.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 41

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Seymour Edge +500 0.184 · 89.3 · 11.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 49

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Jobe Edge +575 0.146 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 40

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle HOT vs Seymour +700 0.146 · 88.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 41

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.111 · 86.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 35

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Jobe — 0.101 · 85.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.054 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 18

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Seymour — 0.105 · 85.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.6% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 11.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

15.5% 11.9% 7.5% 13.2% C+ 62 +330

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.4% 13.2% 4.6% 9.9% D 45 +525

112

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.6% 4.0% 7.0% D 41 +700

127

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.6% 3.0% 8.1% 4.1% D 40 +575

156

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.7% 1.7% 3.1% 3.6% D 35 —

174

Nick Fortes R

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 32 —

183

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 30 —

209

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.6% usage) carries Jobe's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.1% ← leak OFF 30.3% BRK 26.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R Edge

11.9% 6.7% 8.3% 10.3% C 54 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.4% 12.5% 10.8% 12.7% D 49 +500

110

Colt Keith L

6.8% 3.1% 15.2% 7.4% D 42 —

120

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.4% 1.5% 7.7% 7.1% D 41 +700

136

Gleyber Torres R Edge

7.9% 0.0% 5.0% 6.4% D 39 +750

182

Zach Mckinstry L

3.2% 0.0% 1.7% 2.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.1% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Jobe fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 8 mph in 76°F open

-7

↑

8 mph · in

76°F

6:40p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

7:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · in

73°F

8:40p

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

70°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 76°F, wind 8 mph S (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.74 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 62 C+ +330 COOL 10 0.254 92.9 11.3% 39.4%vs RHP 413 25.0% 7.7% 20.2% 41

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D +525 COOL 84 0.136 91.0 9.8% 15.6%vs RHP 386 11.5% 8.3% 9.3% 37

3 Yandy Diaz 41 D +700 COOL 112 0.162 90.8 8.2% 24.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 49

4 Cedric Mullins 40 D +575 WARM 127 0.146 87.7 6.3% 17.8%vs RHP 389 11.7% 0.0% 10.3% 32

5 Richie Palacios 35 D — COOL 156 0.111 86.4 6.0% 11.1%vs RHP 398 4.1% 0.0% 8.4% 32

6 Nick Fortes 32 D — COOL 174 0.101 85.3 4.6% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 8.3% 11

7 Taylor Walls 30 D — COOL 183 0.075 85.6 4.5% 2.5%vs RHP 383 0.9% 9.1% 9.1% 32

8 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 209 0.054 83.9 — 2.4%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 47

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.59 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 54 C +625 COOL 31 0.231 88.8 10.1% 16.7%vs LHP 398 19.2% 0.0% 14.7% 33

2 Spencer Torkelson 49 D +500 COOL 56 0.184 89.3 11.2% 9.4%vs LHP 394 14.3% 0.0% 10.6% 21

3 Colt Keith 42 D — WARM 110 0.151 89.1 8.6% 10.0% 385 6.6% 12.5% 10.0% 24

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D +700 HOT 120 0.146 88.1 8.1% 7.5%vs LHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 9.2% 43

5 Gleyber Torres 39 D +750 COOL 136 0.123 86.2 8.0% 11.8%vs LHP 393 9.5% 8.3% 7.8% 43

6 Zach Mckinstry 30 D — COOL 182 0.105 85.6 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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