TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.94×

KC @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph cross 71°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

7:07p

-3 ↑

8:07p

-5 ↑

9:07p

-7 ↑

10:07p

-8 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at -3

Best of game Vinnie Pasquantino conv 21 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 17 · vs Lugo → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 90

2.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vinnie Pasquantino +475 D ●●●○○

2 Michael Massey +575 D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone +330 C ●●○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 66

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +370 C ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes +750 D ●●○○○

3 Jesús Sánchez +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 16.0% · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Lugo +370 0.209 · 90.5 · 10.1% 16.7% 16.9% F B O C 53

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Scherzer Edge +330 0.215 · 93.2 · 11.4% 10.0% 16.0% F B O C 57

· KC Carter Jensen vs Scherzer Edge +350 0.183 · 90.9 · 9.6% 10.0% 11.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Scherzer Edge +475 0.134 · 89.5 · 8.1% 28.6% 12.8% F B O D 45

· KC Michael Massey vs Scherzer Edge +575 0.169 · 89.5 · 7.3% 20.0% 14.9% F B O D 46

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Lugo Edge +750 0.113 · 86.9 · 3.9% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 32

· KC Nick Loftin vs Scherzer +850 0.148 · 86.9 · 6.2% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 42

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Scherzer — 0.172 · 92.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 20.2% F B O D 49

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Lugo Edge +625 0.164 · 90.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 43

· KC Salvador Perez vs Scherzer +400 0.153 · 88.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Lugo +500 0.151 · 88.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· KC Isaac Collins vs Scherzer Edge +700 0.119 · 88.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Lugo — 0.091 · 90.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Lugo +950 0.118 · 84.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Lugo Edge +850 0.116 · 85.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw vs Lugo — 0.116 · 85.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.7% BRK 32.6% OFF 15.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.4% 17.6% 11.5% 14.4% C 57 +330

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.4% 10.9% 9.1% 10.3% C 51 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Bobby Witt R

12.3% 10.1% 12.2% 11.5% D 49 —

Michael Massey L Edge

7.3% 6.7% 1.7% 6.0% D 46 +575

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.8% 6.3% 8.8% 7.6% D 45 +475

Salvador Perez R

13.4% 6.2% 8.5% 9.8% D 43 +400

106

Nick Loftin R

5.9% 1.9% 0.0% 4.2% D 42 +850

144

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.0% 8.8% 2.2% 5.8% D 38 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.9% ← leak BRK 36.6% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

13.6% 8.9% 20.0% 12.8% C 53 +370

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

11.3% 18.3% 0.0% 11.6% D 43 +625

133

George Springer R

6.9% 5.4% 6.5% 6.4% D 39 +500

171

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.2% 3.4% 2.1% 1.9% D 32 +750

176

Vladimir Guerrero R

7.0% 9.0% 1.9% 6.9% D 31 —

178

Myles Straw R

4.1% 0.0% 5.3% 3.4% D 31 —

179

Ernie Clement R

2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% D 30 +950

185

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.5% 2.1% 4.4% 3.2% D 29 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.9% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Pasquantino Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph cross 71°F retractable

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

71°F

7:07p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

70°F

8:07p

-5

↑

4 mph · in

68°F

9:07p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

67°F

10:07p

-8

↑

6 mph · in

66°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 71°F, wind 3 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 2.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 57 C +330 · 21 0.215 93.2 11.4% 29.4%vs RHP 417 14.8% 10.0% 16.0% 28

2 Carter Jensen 51 C +350 WARM 44 0.183 90.9 9.6% 16.5%vs RHP 397 14.6% 10.0% 11.8% 26

3 Bobby Witt 49 D — COOL 52 0.172 92.5 10.2% 16.7%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 37

4 Michael Massey 46 D +575 · 73 0.169 89.5 7.3% 10.3%vs RHP 399 7.8% 20.0% 14.9% 27

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 45 D +475 HOT 78 0.134 89.5 8.1% 12.7%vs RHP 402 9.6% 28.6% 12.8% 26

6 Salvador Perez 43 D +400 · 94 0.153 88.9 9.4% 18.4%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 34

7 Nick Loftin 42 D +850 WARM 106 0.148 86.9 6.2% 11.9%vs RHP 397 9.1% 11.1% 9.9% 27

8 Isaac Collins 38 D +700 WARM 144 0.119 88.7 7.2% 8.0%vs RHP 394 5.5% 0.0% 7.5% 22

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 53 C +370 · 34 0.209 90.5 10.1% 26.4%vs RHP 400 17.4% 16.7% 16.9% 33

2 Jesús Sánchez 43 D +625 · 99 0.164 90.8 9.6% 19.1%vs RHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 11.7% 7

3 George Springer 39 D +500 COOL 133 0.151 88.0 7.2% 20.8%vs RHP 393 10.2% 0.0% 9.4% 27

4 Nathan Lukes 32 D +750 WARM 171 0.113 86.9 3.9% 13.5%vs RHP 381 7.0% 14.3% 9.7% 29

5 Vladimir Guerrero 31 D — WARM 176 0.091 90.2 7.3% 12.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 23

6 Myles Straw 31 D — · 178 0.116 85.6 5.2% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 26

7 Ernie Clement 30 D +950 COOL 179 0.118 84.4 4.3% 6.2%vs RHP 376 7.4% 0.0% 6.6% 38

8 Andres Gimenez 29 D +850 COOL 185 0.116 85.5 5.0% 10.3%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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