TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.87×

MIN @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 9 mph out 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

+18 ↑

6:40p

+18 ↑

7:40p

+16 ↑

8:40p

+15 ↑

9:40p

+13 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +18

Best of game Brooks Lee conv 24 · vs Jump ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 25 · vs Bradley → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 75

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brooks Lee +625 C ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +400 C ●●○○○

3 Luke Keaschall +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 39

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +475 C ●●●●○

2 Zack Gelof +400 C ●●●○○

3 Jeff Mcneil +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: 16.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Bradley Edge +475 0.137 · 89.3 · 8.3% 30.8% 20.0% F B O C 51

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Jump Edge +625 0.186 · 87.9 · 4.9% 25.0% 22.5% F B O C 52

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Bradley +400 0.204 · 88.5 · 8.5% 22.2% 20.3% F B O C 58

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Jump +400 0.228 · 92.4 · 8.7% 9.1% 18.8% F B O C 59

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ COOL vs Jump Edge +235 0.260 · 90.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 21.5% F B O C+ 64

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Jump Edge +400 0.170 · 90.0 · 7.9% 8.3% 13.0% F B O C 51

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Jump Edge +350 0.173 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Bradley Edge +575 0.094 · 86.8 · 4.2% 25.0% 10.0% F B O D 38

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Jump Edge +750 0.109 · 85.1 · 4.7% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 40

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Bradley +575 0.098 · 90.9 · 7.9% 7.7% 8.0% F B O D 44

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Jump — 0.150 · 87.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bradley Edge +575 0.141 · 89.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 45

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Jump Edge — 0.104 · 89.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 39.7% OFF 8.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Byron Buxton R Edge

18.3% 13.8% 12.5% 16.2% C+ 64 +235

Kody Clemens L

9.7% 18.6% 11.1% 11.9% C 59 +400

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.7% C 52 +625

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.0% 7.0% 9.4% 11.5% C 52 +350

Josh Bell S Edge

10.4% 12.2% 6.2% 9.8% C 51 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L

7.6% 8.8% 4.7% 7.4% D 46 —

124

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 3.5% D 40 +750

128

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.7% 11.4% 5.7% 6.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.7% ← leak OFF 19.9% BRK 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Zack Gelof R

9.6% 16.7% 4.5% 8.5% C 58 +400

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.9% 3.5% 9.3% 7.2% C 51 +475

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.0% 7.4% 3.6% 6.2% D 45 +575

Henry Bolte R

7.3% 3.7% 7.5% 6.9% D 44 +575

137

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.6% 1.5% 3.0% 1.9% D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.7% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Lee Gelof Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Lawrence Butler +475 · 51

Brooks Lee +625 · 52

Zack Gelof +400 · 58

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 9 mph out 90°F open

+18

↑

9 mph · out

90°F

6:40p · peak

+18

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

7:40p

+16

↑

8 mph · out

83°F

8:40p

+15

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

9:40p

+13

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.87× 90°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gage Jump · LHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 64 C+ +235 COOL 8 0.260 90.3 10.2% 25.0%vs LHP 402 25.6% 0.0% 21.5% 27

2 Kody Clemens 59 C +400 · 17 0.228 92.4 8.7% 25.0%vs LHP 391 16.5% 9.1% 18.8% 30

3 Brooks Lee 52 C +625 · 35 0.186 87.9 4.9% 12.9%vs LHP 370 15.8% 25.0% 22.5% 38

4 Royce Lewis 52 C +350 COOL 39 0.173 89.8 8.6% 20.0%vs LHP 400 14.8% 0.0% 14.4% 37

5 Josh Bell 51 C +400 COOL 43 0.170 90.0 7.9% 13.9%vs LHP 407 11.5% 8.3% 13.0% 36

6 Trevor Larnach 46 D — WARM 75 0.150 87.6 6.9% 22.2%vs LHP 397 8.9% 0.0% 12.0% 25

7 Luke Keaschall 40 D +750 HOT 124 0.109 85.1 4.7% 3.3%vs LHP 374 7.1% 16.7% 9.0% 38

8 Victor Caratini 39 D — · 128 0.104 89.5 6.5% 12.5%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 13

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 58 C +400 COOL 19 0.204 88.5 8.5% 26.8%vs RHP 397 20.0% 22.2% 20.3% 34

2 Lawrence Butler 51 C +475 WARM 41 0.137 89.3 8.3% 20.0%vs RHP 409 8.0% 30.8% 20.0% 34

3 Carlos Cortes 45 D +575 COOL 81 0.141 89.3 7.6% 14.3%vs RHP 403 4.3% 0.0% 11.3% 27

4 Henry Bolte 44 D +575 COOL 92 0.098 90.9 7.9% 4.3%vs RHP 410 9.8% 7.7% 8.0% 40

5 Jeff Mcneil 38 D +575 HOT 137 0.094 86.8 4.2% 11.1%vs RHP 381 5.3% 25.0% 10.0% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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