TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.41×

LAD @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 8 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:15p

+12 ↑

8:15p

+9 ↑

9:15p

+7 ↑

10:15p

+5 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +12

Best of game Max Muncy conv 41 · vs Elder ⟷ Matt Olson conv 21 · vs Glasnow → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 79

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +320 B ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +220 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Glasnow RHP · LAD

leak 55

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +330 C+ ●●●○○

2 Austin Riley +500 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Elder Edge +320 0.253 · 90.7 · 9.5% 50.0% 32.9% F B O B 70

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Elder Edge +220 0.257 · 93.5 · 10.5% 25.0% 32.4% F B O C+ 68

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Elder +500 0.171 · 90.2 · 7.1% 25.0% 19.7% F B O C 52

· ATL Matt Olson vs Glasnow Edge +330 0.273 · 92.7 · 11.2% 16.7% 25.4% F B O C+ 66

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Glasnow Edge +400 0.175 · 91.7 · 10.2% 8.3% 12.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATL Austin Riley vs Glasnow +500 0.143 · 91.4 · 9.9% 8.3% 13.9% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Glasnow Edge +700 0.165 · 86.9 · 5.8% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 44

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Glasnow — 0.177 · 89.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 18.3% F B O D 47

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Glasnow Edge — 0.198 · 90.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 47

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Glasnow Edge +625 0.156 · 90.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 44

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Elder +500 0.146 · 89.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Glasnow +850 0.126 · 87.0 · 5.6% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 35

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Elder Edge +500 0.160 · 89.8 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 47

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Elder Edge +525 0.132 · 89.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Glasnow Edge +750 0.124 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.3% ← leak BRK 23.7% OFF 11.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Max Muncy L Edge

14.5% 9.8% 4.8% 11.5% B 70 +320

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

19.7% 11.4% 15.8% 16.5% C+ 68 +220

Mookie Betts R

8.5% 4.2% 8.1% 7.5% C 52 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.0% 8.1% 7.9% 8.6% D 47 +500

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.0% 10.0% 6.7% 8.9% D 43 +500

107

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.3% 3.0% 1.3% 5.7% D 42 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.3% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 47.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L Edge

18.1% 11.8% 15.4% C+ 66 +330

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.5% 19.5% 13.0% C 52 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Ronald Acuna R

12.7% 10.4% 12.4% D 47 —

Michael Harris L Edge

7.2% 13.1% 10.3% D 47 —

Austin Riley R

12.6% 13.8% 12.1% D 47 +500

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.5% 7.3% 7.2% D 44 +625

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.4% 1.6% 4.1% D 44 +700

134

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.7% 7.3% 5.5% D 39 +750

154

Mauricio Dubon R

3.1% 5.4% 4.0% D 35 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Glasnow's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani Betts Olson

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Max Muncy +320 · 70

Shohei Ohtani +220 · 68

Mookie Betts +500 · 52

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 8 mph out 84°F open

+12

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

7:15p · peak

+12

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · out

79°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

10:15p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 84°F, wind 8 mph NW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.53 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 70 B +320 · 1 0.253 90.7 9.5% 27.7%vs RHP 411 21.9% 50.0% 32.9% 53

2 Shohei Ohtani 68 C+ +220 · 5 0.257 93.5 10.5% 26.5%vs RHP 407 19.8% 25.0% 32.4% 32

3 Mookie Betts 52 C +500 COOL 36 0.171 90.2 7.1% 16.2%vs RHP 389 11.4% 25.0% 19.7% 41

4 Freddie Freeman 47 D +500 COOL 67 0.160 89.8 7.6% 14.3%vs RHP 398 10.2% 0.0% 10.8% 31

5 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +500 WARM 93 0.146 89.7 7.7% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 26

6 Kyle Tucker 42 D +525 COOL 107 0.132 89.0 6.2% 11.0%vs RHP 392 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% 35

vs Tyler Glasnow · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 66 C+ +330 · 6 0.273 92.7 11.2% 33.3%vs RHP 408 24.2% 16.7% 25.4% 31

2 Drake Baldwin 52 C +400 COOL 40 0.175 91.7 10.2% 24.6%vs RHP 402 16.2% 8.3% 12.8% 37

3 Ronald Acuna 47 D — COOL 63 0.177 89.9 10.0% 22.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% 31

4 Michael Harris 47 D — COOL 64 0.198 90.7 9.3% 22.4%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 36

5 Austin Riley 47 D +500 WARM 65 0.143 91.4 9.9% 17.3%vs RHP 407 9.2% 8.3% 13.9% 26

6 Mike Yastrzemski 44 D +625 WARM 90 0.156 90.8 7.5% 18.3%vs RHP 389 8.4% 0.0% 13.4% 16

7 Ozzie Albies 44 D +700 · 91 0.165 86.9 5.8% 12.9%vs RHP 386 13.7% 8.3% 10.4% 39

8 Dominic Smith 39 D +750 COOL 134 0.124 87.7 6.6% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 8.5% 8

9 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +850 COOL 154 0.126 87.0 5.6% 10.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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