TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.20×

CHC @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph cross 108°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 38 · vs Pfaadt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 18 · vs Holmes → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 95

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +750 D ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 57

0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +850 D ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +525 D ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 46.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +350 0.278 · 90.2 · 9.4% 46.2% 30.5% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Pfaadt +500 0.209 · 88.2 · 8.8% 23.1% 18.0% F B O C 50

· CHC Ian Happ vs Pfaadt Edge +525 0.202 · 89.3 · 9.1% 18.2% 18.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Pfaadt +750 0.163 · 88.4 · 6.2% 30.8% 13.6% F B O D 42

· — Nolan Arenado COOL vs Holmes +850 0.201 · 85.1 · 6.1% 18.2% 18.1% F B O D 43

· — Corbin Carroll vs Holmes Edge +525 0.240 · 91.7 · 7.9% 16.7% 15.3% F B O D 49

· CHC Michael Busch vs Pfaadt Edge +575 0.151 · 88.2 · 8.1% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 42

· — Tim Tawa vs Holmes +850 0.160 · 90.6 · 7.0% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 39

· — Gabriel Moreno vs Holmes +950 0.161 · 89.6 · 6.6% 16.7% 8.1% F B O D 38

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Pfaadt +950 0.108 · 87.2 · 6.2% 12.5% 5.3% F B O D 33

· — Ildemaro Vargas vs Holmes Edge — 0.146 · 87.5 · 4.4% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· — Jose Fernandez vs Holmes — 0.099 · 87.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· — Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.125 · 87.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

· — Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Holmes — 0.111 · 87.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 30

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.098 · 85.9 · 2.8% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.7% ← leak BRK 29.0% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.0% 14.6% 12.7% 12.4% C+ 63 +350

Ian Happ S Edge

15.3% 13.5% 2.6% 11.5% C 50 +525

Seiya Suzuki R

11.4% 9.0% 12.0% 10.6% C 50 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Alex Bregman R

4.0% 7.5% 8.3% 5.3% D 42 +750

104

Michael Busch L Edge

11.9% 5.0% 2.0% 8.9% D 42 +575

164

Carson Kelly R

5.8% 4.1% 5.6% 5.3% D 33 +950

203

Nico Hoerner R

1.0% 0.8% 2.1% 1.1% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.7% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.5% ← leak BRK 26.8% OFF 15.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.6% 14.5% 9.0% 11.9% D 49 +525

Nolan Arenado R

9.8% 1.9% 5.7% 6.8% D 43 +850

132

Tim Tawa R

8.7% 9.8% 8.3% 8.9% D 39 +850

143

Gabriel Moreno R

8.5% 7.8% 7.0% 8.1% D 38 +950

173

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.7% 2.8% 1.3% 3.5% D 32 —

181

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.4% 6.7% 0.0% 6.3% D 30 —

188

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 1.4% 2.1% 3.0% D 29 —

194

Jose Fernandez R

3.9% 5.7% 0.0% 4.2% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.5% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Bregman Busch Carroll Arenado Tawa

Legend

attack side — vs Pfaadt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong +350 · 63

Seiya Suzuki +500 · 50

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph cross 108°F retractable

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8 mph · cross

108°F

6:40p

↑

8 mph · cross

105°F

7:40p · peak

↑

8 mph · cross

102°F

8:40p

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8 mph · cross

99°F

9:40p

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7 mph · cross

96°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 108°F, wind 8 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 63 C+ +350 COOL 9 0.278 90.2 9.4% 25.3%vs RHP 394 22.0% 46.2% 30.5% 43

2 Ian Happ 50 C +525 · 47 0.202 89.3 9.1% 24.7%vs RHP 404 17.8% 18.2% 18.2% 33

3 Seiya Suzuki 50 C +500 COOL 48 0.209 88.2 8.8% 22.7%vs RHP 406 16.5% 23.1% 18.0% 35

4 Alex Bregman 42 D +750 WARM 103 0.163 88.4 6.2% 20.0%vs RHP 389 11.6% 30.8% 13.6% 43

5 Michael Busch 42 D +575 · 104 0.151 88.2 8.1% 12.6%vs RHP 403 12.9% 16.7% 12.8% 30

6 Carson Kelly 33 D +950 · 164 0.108 87.2 6.2% 5.9%vs RHP 413 7.6% 12.5% 5.3% 28

7 Nico Hoerner 25 D — COOL 203 0.098 85.9 2.8% 7.6%vs RHP 381 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 45

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 49 D +525 · 53 0.240 91.7 7.9% 16.7%vs RHP 402 13.4% 16.7% 15.3% 36

2 Nolan Arenado 43 D +850 COOL 95 0.201 85.1 6.1% 22.1%vs RHP 389 15.7% 18.2% 18.1% 28

3 Tim Tawa 39 D +850 · 132 0.160 90.6 7.0% 24.2%vs RHP 400 8.8% 16.7% 9.8% 36

4 Gabriel Moreno 38 D +950 WARM 143 0.161 89.6 6.6% 14.3%vs RHP 401 9.4% 16.7% 8.1% 39

5 Ildemaro Vargas 32 D — WARM 173 0.146 87.5 4.4% 10.3%vs RHP 396 5.2% 10.0% 7.7% 40

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 30 D — COOL 181 0.111 87.5 5.9% 7.1%vs RHP 419 2.4% 0.0% 5.7% 24

7 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D — COOL 188 0.125 87.5 4.0% 10.1%vs RHP 383 6.9% 0.0% 6.8% 40

8 Jose Fernandez 28 D — WARM 194 0.099 87.6 4.8% 23.1%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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