TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.15×

HOU @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:05p

+4 ↑

8:05p

+4 ↑

9:05p

+4 ↑

10:05p

+4 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +5

Best of game Isaac Paredes conv 15 · vs Warren ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 88

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · leakiest side of this game

1 Isaac Paredes +525 D ●●○○○

2 Christian Walker +400 C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +575 D ●●○○○

FADE HOU Bullpen Proxy · HOU

leak 61

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +320 C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +290 B ●●●○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 25.9% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Proxy +320 0.201 · 90.8 · 9.8% 33.3% 22.5% F B O C 59

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Proxy +290 0.274 · 92.2 · 14.9% 16.7% 25.9% F B O B 73

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Warren +400 0.205 · 89.3 · 8.5% 11.1% 16.6% F B O C 54

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Warren +525 0.172 · 89.4 · 9.5% 10.0% 13.1% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Warren Edge +210 0.295 · 94.5 · 11.7% 0.0% 19.4% F B O C+ 61

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Proxy — 0.200 · 86.5 · 10.3% 0.0% 17.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Warren +525 0.167 · 85.8 · 6.4% 18.2% 12.8% F B O D 46

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Warren +575 0.184 · 88.3 · 6.5% 11.1% 15.4% F B O D 48

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Warren +950 0.129 · 85.9 · 4.3% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 36

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Proxy +425 0.158 · 89.1 · 6.1% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 44

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Proxy — 0.177 · 90.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 48

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Warren +750 0.154 · 85.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 39

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Warren — 0.138 · 87.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Proxy +750 0.142 · 84.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 36

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Proxy +500 0.117 · 89.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.2% ← leak BRK 24.5% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

17.8% 22.2% 9.6% 17.3% C+ 61 +210

Christian Walker R

7.9% 10.1% 13.2% 9.2% C 54 +400

Cam Smith R

9.2% 15.7% 16.1% 11.4% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jeremy Peña R

4.6% 6.8% 9.5% 5.7% D 48 +575

Isaac Paredes R

7.0% 3.0% 1.9% 5.2% D 46 +525

105

Yainer Diaz R

5.9% 4.1% 6.5% 5.4% D 42 —

129

Jose Altuve R

5.6% 4.6% 0.0% 4.8% D 39 +750

152

Christian Vazquez R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.2% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for HOU Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Peña Paredes Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Trent Grisham +320 · 59

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 7 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

73°F

7:05p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

71°F

8:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

70°F

9:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

66°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 73°F, wind 7 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 61 C+ +210 COOL 13 0.295 94.5 11.7% 26.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 27

2 Christian Walker 54 C +400 COOL 30 0.205 89.3 8.5% 25.3%vs RHP 392 17.4% 11.1% 16.6% 26

3 Cam Smith 50 C +525 COOL 49 0.172 89.4 9.5% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.9% 10.0% 13.1% 25

4 Jeremy Peña 48 D +575 WARM 58 0.184 88.3 6.5% 28.3%vs RHP 384 14.3% 11.1% 15.4% 25

5 Isaac Paredes 46 D +525 COOL 74 0.167 85.8 6.4% 17.4%vs RHP 379 12.1% 18.2% 12.8% 39

6 Yainer Diaz 42 D — WARM 105 0.138 87.9 6.6% 25.0%vs RHP 398 9.8% 0.0% 11.2% 17

7 Jose Altuve 39 D +750 COOL 129 0.154 85.1 6.2% 21.6%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 23

8 Christian Vazquez 36 D +950 WARM 152 0.129 85.9 4.3% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 12

vs HOU Bullpen Proxy 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 73 B +290 WARM 2 0.274 92.2 14.9% 29.1% 394 24.4% 16.7% 25.9% 30

2 Trent Grisham 59 C +320 WARM 27 0.201 90.8 9.8% 14.8% 386 14.4% 33.3% 22.5% 33

3 Paul Goldschmidt 54 C — COOL 45 0.200 86.5 10.3% 19.8% 390 15.7% 0.0% 17.7% 2

4 Jazz Chisholm 48 D — COOL 85 0.177 90.8 9.0% 16.5% 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 29

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D +425 COOL 122 0.158 89.1 6.1% 9.2% 379 9.1% 0.0% 12.1% 2

6 Austin Wells 41 D +500 COOL 145 0.117 89.0 6.5% 9.8% 387 8.8% 0.0% 8.1% 21

7 Jose Caballero 36 D +750 WARM 166 0.142 84.0 4.3% 15.0% 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.