TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.80×

BAL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 9 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-13 ↑

6:45p

-12 ↑

7:45p

-12 ↑

8:45p

-11 ↑

9:45p

-10 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 10:45p window peaks -10

Best of game Colton Cowser conv 31 · vs Proxy ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 23 · vs Bassitt → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK STL Bullpen Proxy · STL

leak 41

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colton Cowser — D ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +390 C+ ●●●●●

3 Coby Mayo +475 C ●●●○○

FADE Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 3

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +575 C ●●●●○

2 Alec Burleson +500 D ●●○○○

3 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 20.0% · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Proxy +390 0.229 · 94.0 · 14.0% 41.7% 20.0% F B O C+ 60

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Bassitt +575 0.218 · 92.4 · 8.2% 30.8% 15.8% F B O C 51

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Proxy +475 0.225 · 92.2 · 12.6% 20.0% 18.7% F B O C 53

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Proxy +625 0.210 · 91.2 · 13.3% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Proxy — 0.151 · 87.3 · 10.9% 50.0% 12.4% F B O D 45

· STL Alec Burleson vs Bassitt Edge +500 0.197 · 92.1 · 7.5% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 45

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Proxy +750 0.174 · 89.9 · 7.2% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 40

· STL José Fermín vs Bassitt — 0.127 · 86.5 · 3.4% 12.5% 4.4% F B O D 29

· STL Masyn Winn vs Bassitt — 0.088 · 88.2 · 4.2% 11.1% 4.5% F B O D 26

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Proxy +950 0.130 · 87.9 · 4.2% 10.0% 5.6% F B O D 28

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Bassitt Edge +700 0.132 · 89.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 33

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Bassitt Edge +850 0.123 · 85.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Proxy +850 0.126 · 87.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 31

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Bassitt +850 0.137 · 89.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 64.0% ← leak BRK 30.2% OFF 5.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.1% 12.1% 15.4% 13.5% C 51 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 10.9% 10.6% 11.3% D 45 +500

161

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.4% 3.9% 1.8% 7.5% D 33 +700

177

Nathan Church L Edge

7.5% 6.2% 4.4% 6.3% D 31 +850

184

Ivan Herrera R

6.2% 4.5% 6.5% 5.7% D 29 +850

191

José Fermín R

3.6% 2.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 29 —

201

Masyn Winn R

4.1% 1.9% 5.7% 3.6% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Bassitt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Walker Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Alonso +390 · 60

Coby Mayo +475 · 53

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 9 mph in 81°F open

-13

↑

9 mph · in

81°F

6:45p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

79°F

7:45p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

77°F

8:45p

-11

↑

7 mph · in

75°F

9:45p

-10

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

10:45p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.80× 81°F, wind 9 mph E (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 60 C+ +390 · 22 0.229 94.0 14.0% 22.9% 402 20.8% 41.7% 20.0% 38

2 Coby Mayo 53 C +475 WARM 51 0.225 92.2 12.6% 18.7% 411 16.3% 20.0% 18.7% 22

3 Samuel Basallo 50 C +625 WARM 69 0.210 91.2 13.3% 25.0% 399 15.8% 0.0% 18.8% 10

4 Colton Cowser 45 D — WARM 111 0.151 87.3 10.9% 17.4% 417 16.4% 50.0% 12.4% 16

5 Gunnar Henderson 40 D +750 · 150 0.174 89.9 7.2% 15.7% 391 14.8% 16.7% 9.0% 37

6 Jackson Holliday 31 D +850 COOL 196 0.126 87.4 6.9% 10.7% 388 4.1% 0.0% 5.8% 42

7 Leody Taveras 28 D +950 COOL 205 0.130 87.9 4.2% 8.1% 405 4.3% 10.0% 5.6% 31

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C +575 COOL 42 0.218 92.4 8.2% 27.1%vs RHP 406 18.5% 30.8% 15.8% 40

2 Alec Burleson 45 D +500 WARM 79 0.197 92.1 7.5% 23.1%vs RHP 405 15.2% 16.7% 12.5% 36

3 Jj Wetherholt 33 D +700 · 161 0.132 89.9 6.2% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 6.8% 39

4 Nathan Church 31 D +850 COOL 177 0.123 85.9 5.6% 14.6%vs RHP 384 7.9% 0.0% 6.7% 23

5 Ivan Herrera 29 D +850 COOL 184 0.137 89.3 5.3% 17.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 32

6 José Fermín 29 D — WARM 191 0.127 86.5 3.4% 7.7%vs RHP 388 6.8% 12.5% 4.4% 28

7 Masyn Winn 26 D — WARM 201 0.088 88.2 4.2% 8.2%vs RHP 385 4.1% 11.1% 4.5% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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