TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.83×

BOS @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 12 mph in 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-15 ↑

6:40p

-16 ↑

7:40p

-15 ↑

8:40p

-13 ↑

9:40p

-12 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -12

Best of game Owen Caissie conv 14 · vs Tolle ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 23 · vs Proxy → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 95

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Owen Caissie — D ●●○○○

2 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee +950 D ●●○○○

FADE MIA Bullpen Proxy · TB

leak 38

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +500 C ●●●●○

2 Wilyer Abreu +390 C ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: Match 21.4% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Proxy +500 0.250 · 89.9 · 14.2% 25.0% 21.4% F B O C 59

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Proxy +390 0.208 · 89.9 · 12.7% 15.4% 10.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIA Owen Caissie vs Tolle — 0.201 · 91.2 · 9.8% 11.1% 17.0% F B O D 43

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Tolle Edge +950 0.145 · 86.5 · 3.9% 20.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Tolle +950 0.114 · 87.2 · 4.8% 18.2% 8.5% F B O D 28

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Tolle Edge +425 0.226 · 91.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 24.2% F B O D 41

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Proxy +625 0.153 · 89.6 · 9.4% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 40

· — Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Proxy +750 0.175 · 86.4 · 5.7% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 36

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Tolle +525 0.220 · 92.1 · 8.7% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 43

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Proxy +950 0.143 · 83.6 · 2.8% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 28

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.097 · 87.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 23

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Proxy +950 0.160 · 88.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 36

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Tolle Edge +850 0.137 · 89.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 87.6% ← leak BRK 9.2% OFF 3.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Owen Caissie L

16.2% 9.3% 17.6% 14.6% D 43 —

Kyle Stowers L

10.1% 17.2% 7.3% 11.4% D 43 +525

114

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.2% 12.9% 14.3% 12.6% D 41 +425

186

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.3% 3.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 29 +950

190

Otto Lopez R Edge

8.7% 3.7% 2.9% 6.0% D 29 +850

192

Jakob Marsee L

3.1% 1.8% 7.7% 3.5% D 28 +950

207

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.1% 2.2% 2.6% 3.4% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (87.6% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for MIA Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Sanoja Marsee Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Willson Contreras +500 · 59

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 12 mph in 87°F retractable

-15

↑

12 mph · in

87°F

6:40p

-16

↑

12 mph · in

85°F

7:40p

-15

↑

11 mph · in

83°F

8:40p

-13

↑

10 mph · in

82°F

9:40p

-12

↑

9 mph · in

81°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.83× 87°F, wind 12 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 43 D — · 96 0.201 91.2 9.8% 22.0% 398 14.1% 11.1% 17.0% 15

2 Kyle Stowers 43 D +525 WARM 97 0.220 92.1 8.7% 9.1%vs LHP 396 13.3% 0.0% 14.5% 2

3 Heriberto Hernández 41 D +425 WARM 114 0.226 91.6 9.1% 42.9%vs LHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 27

4 Javier Sanoja 29 D +950 · 186 0.145 86.5 3.9% 16.7%vs LHP 378 6.9% 20.0% 7.8% 37

5 Otto Lopez 29 D +850 · 190 0.137 89.1 6.3% 7.4%vs LHP 402 6.3% 0.0% 5.9% 48

6 Jakob Marsee 28 D +950 · 192 0.114 87.2 4.8% 11.1%vs LHP 381 7.7% 18.2% 8.5% 34

7 Xavier Edwards 23 D — COOL 207 0.097 87.1 4.7% 21.1%vs LHP 396 3.9% 0.0% 6.8% 42

vs MIA Bullpen Proxy 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 59 C +500 COOL 28 0.250 89.9 14.2% 22.0% 405 20.0% 25.0% 21.4% 34

2 Wilyer Abreu 50 C +390 · 70 0.208 89.9 12.7% 13.1% 407 15.7% 15.4% 10.0% 39

3 Jarren Duran 40 D +625 COOL 151 0.153 89.6 9.4% 15.9% 398 13.1% 9.1% 7.4% 30

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 36 D +750 COOL 167 0.175 86.4 5.7% 13.1% 382 12.7% 8.3% 8.1% 42

5 Andruw Monasterio 36 D +950 COOL 168 0.160 88.2 7.5% 6.4% 390 11.1% 0.0% 6.7% 41

6 Caleb Durbin 28 D +950 COOL 204 0.143 83.6 2.8% 11.2% 376 8.9% 7.7% 6.4% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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