TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ SD

Neutral air · 0.99×

PIT @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +0

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 15 · vs Skenes ⟷ Oneil Cruz conv 34 · vs King → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 92

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +500 D ●●○○○

2 Xander Bogaerts +850 D ●●○○○

3 Gavin Sheets +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 78

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Oneil Cruz +370 C ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +390 C ●●●○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: 17.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Oneil Cruz ✶ vs King Edge +370 0.227 · 96.0 · 12.2% 40.0% 27.6% F B O C 59

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs King Edge +390 0.225 · 91.2 · 10.1% 16.7% 20.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Skenes Edge +500 0.175 · 90.7 · 9.2% 16.7% 13.6% F B O D 44

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Skenes +850 0.108 · 88.9 · 6.8% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 32

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Skenes Edge +700 0.181 · 87.5 · 7.3% 11.1% 15.6% F B O D 39

· SD Ty France COOL vs Skenes +700 0.221 · 92.2 · 8.7% 8.3% 15.8% F B O D 46

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Skenes +500 0.193 · 90.8 · 8.5% 8.3% 13.6% F B O D 44

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Skenes — 0.163 · 92.8 · 9.4% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 37

· PIT Jared Triolo vs King — 0.067 · 87.2 · 4.5% 9.1% 6.7% F B O D 26

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Skenes Edge +850 0.077 · 87.1 · 5.1% 8.3% 6.4% F B O D 25

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs King Edge +575 0.164 · 90.6 · 9.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs King Edge +700 0.147 · 86.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Skenes +950 0.112 · 87.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· PIT Jake Mangum vs King Edge — 0.090 · 85.3 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 27

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs King +950 0.090 · 86.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.1% ← leak OFF 27.6% BRK 25.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Oneil Cruz L Edge

17.5% 10.0% 21.3% 17.2% C 59 +370

Brandon Lowe L Edge

15.9% 10.0% 7.6% 12.2% C 53 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

100

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.8% 8.3% 12.5% 11.3% D 43 +575

142

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.0% 10.0% 6.2% 7.1% D 38 +700

195

Nick Gonzales R

2.2% 0.0% 4.5% 2.7% D 28 +950

198

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.5% 0.0% 1.1% 2.1% D 27 —

200

Jared Triolo R

2.9% 0.0% 2.4% 2.4% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.1% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.4% ← leak OFF 24.1% BRK 22.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Ty France R

10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% D 46 +700

Manny Machado R

11.8% 8.9% 6.1% 9.9% D 44 +500

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.4% 8.0% 10.3% 11.4% D 44 +500

130

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.7% 1.7% 5.9% 7.2% D 39 +700

146

Fernando Tatis R

10.9% 17.0% 14.4% 12.6% D 37 —

170

Xander Bogaerts R

7.2% 3.4% 4.5% 6.2% D 32 +850

193

Freddy Fermin R

2.8% 9.1% 4.9% 3.8% D 28 +950

202

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.7% 3.6% 2.6% 3.5% D 25 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.4% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Merrill Sheets Bogaerts

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Oneil Cruz +370 · 59

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 5 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

83°F

6:40p · peak

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

80°F

7:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

8:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 83°F, wind 5 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Michael King · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 59 C +370 WARM 16 0.227 96.0 12.2% 37.1%vs RHP 415 24.6% 40.0% 27.6% 10

2 Brandon Lowe 53 C +390 COOL 32 0.225 91.2 10.1% 25.6%vs RHP 391 16.8% 16.7% 20.2% 29

3 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +575 · 100 0.164 90.6 9.7% 16.1%vs RHP 409 10.9% 0.0% 9.4% 39

4 Spencer Horwitz 38 D +700 COOL 142 0.147 86.8 7.8% 15.2%vs RHP 395 9.8% 0.0% 8.4% 29

5 Nick Gonzales 28 D +950 COOL 195 0.090 86.2 4.8% 10.6%vs RHP 397 6.5% 0.0% 6.8% 30

6 Jake Mangum 27 D — WARM 198 0.090 85.3 4.2% 10.3%vs RHP 393 4.7% 0.0% 7.0% 27

7 Jared Triolo 26 D — WARM 200 0.067 87.2 4.5% 9.1%vs RHP 407 1.4% 9.1% 6.7% 33

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 46 D +700 COOL 72 0.221 92.2 8.7% 27.5%vs RHP 394 15.8% 8.3% 15.8% 34

2 Manny Machado 44 D +500 COOL 88 0.193 90.8 8.5% 26.7%vs RHP 397 17.5% 8.3% 13.6% 38

3 Jackson Merrill 44 D +500 WARM 89 0.175 90.7 9.2% 21.2%vs RHP 412 16.1% 16.7% 13.6% 30

4 Gavin Sheets 39 D +700 · 130 0.181 87.5 7.3% 30.9%vs RHP 395 10.5% 11.1% 15.6% 15

5 Fernando Tatis 37 D — HOT 146 0.163 92.8 9.4% 14.3%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 39

6 Xander Bogaerts 32 D +850 HOT 170 0.108 88.9 6.8% 16.1%vs RHP 400 8.1% 16.7% 10.4% 32

7 Freddy Fermin 28 D +950 COOL 193 0.112 87.1 5.3% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.6% 0.0% 7.1% 16

8 Jake Cronenworth 25 D +850 COOL 202 0.077 87.1 5.1% 8.8%vs RHP 392 2.4% 8.3% 6.4% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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