TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.18×

CLE @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 8 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:38p

+4 ↑

7:38p

+3 ↑

8:38p

+2 ↑

9:38p

+1 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +5

Best of game Zach Neto conv 15 · vs Williams ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 7 · vs Ureña → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 100

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +425 D ●●○○○

2 Josh Lowe +700 D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout +400 D ●○○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 10

0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●○○○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: Match 14.5% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Williams +425 0.199 · 89.4 · 11.4% 15.4% 14.5% F B O D 48

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Williams Edge +700 0.148 · 89.0 · 9.7% 15.4% 13.5% F B O D 39

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Ureña Edge +950 0.119 · 86.7 · 4.2% 9.1% 5.8% F B O D 27

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Williams +400 0.193 · 89.8 · 13.4% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 47

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.182 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 33

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Williams +750 0.127 · 87.8 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 33

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Ureña Edge +575 0.162 · 91.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Williams — 0.123 · 87.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 32

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Ureña Edge +750 0.119 · 90.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Ureña Edge +750 0.130 · 88.1 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 29

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Ureña Edge +500 0.140 · 89.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.060 · 83.8 · 1.3% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 15

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.3% ← leak OFF 32.6% BRK 15.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

159

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.0% 2.8% 14.3% 7.7% D 33 —

160

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.0% 1.5% 6.5% 6.3% D 33 +575

180

Patrick Bailey S Edge

8.5% 4.5% 4.3% 6.5% D 30 +750

189

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4.5% D 29 +750

197

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 27 +500

199

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.8% 1.1% 4.5% 3.3% D 27 +950

210

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 15 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 50.4% FB 49.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

7.4% 14.6% 11.8% D 48 +425

Mike Trout R

22.0% 15.0% 15.9% D 47 +400

131

Josh Lowe L Edge

4.9% 11.1% 8.3% D 39 +700

162

Vaughn Grissom R

5.7% 8.1% 6.4% D 33 +750

172

Oswald Peraza R

6.8% 6.0% 6.9% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 8 mph out 88°F open

↑

8 mph · out

88°F

6:38p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

7:38p

↑

7 mph · out

82°F

8:38p

↑

6 mph · out

80°F

9:38p

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 88°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 33 D — COOL 159 0.182 87.3 6.6% 25.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 31

2 Chase Delauter 33 D +575 COOL 160 0.162 91.2 6.0% 23.6%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 30

3 Patrick Bailey 30 D +750 · 180 0.119 90.6 6.3% 14.6%vs RHP 409 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% 19

4 Travis Bazzana 29 D +750 COOL 189 0.130 88.1 5.2% 16.7%vs RHP 396 9.3% 0.0% 6.2% 35

5 Jose Ramirez 27 D +500 COOL 197 0.140 89.3 5.2% 10.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 34

6 Brayan Rocchio 27 D +950 WARM 199 0.119 86.7 4.2% 11.9%vs RHP 384 7.3% 9.1% 5.8% 32

7 Steven Kwan 15 D — COOL 210 0.060 83.8 1.3% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.7% 0.0% 4.9% 46

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 48 D +425 · 59 0.199 89.4 11.4% 18.8%vs RHP 404 16.0% 15.4% 14.5% 40

2 Mike Trout 47 D +400 COOL 62 0.193 89.8 13.4% 22.4%vs RHP 409 14.5% 0.0% 14.5% 36

3 Josh Lowe 39 D +700 COOL 131 0.148 89.0 9.7% 17.2%vs RHP 392 10.1% 15.4% 13.5% 25

4 Vaughn Grissom 33 D +750 COOL 162 0.127 87.8 8.3% 17.5%vs RHP 390 7.7% 0.0% 9.3% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 32 D — COOL 172 0.123 87.4 8.7% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.4% 0.0% 8.2% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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