12
HRs allowed
9.8%
HR rate (pool)
20.0%
Overall HR/FB
5.09
FIP
4.52
xFIP
+0.57
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
88
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 88th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.0 EV · 404 ft
max EV allowed 112.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Adrian Houser.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
45.6%
85.9
11.7°
8
+0.4
Fastball Hard
17.4%
83.9
32.2°
1
-1.2
Changeup Offspeed
16.9%
79.1
4.8°
0
-0.3
Slider Breaking
11.6%
84.3
18.4°
3
+2.4
Curveball Breaking
8.5%
85.6
8.7°
2
+5.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups123
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate9.8%
Pool HR/game day0.86
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB20.0% 88
HR/9—
FIP5.09 82
xFIP4.52
FIP − xFIP+0.57 76
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 45.6% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.7°
HRs allowed8
Pitches623
Fastball
Hard · 17.4% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle32.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches238
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.9% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.1 mph
Avg launch angle4.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches231
Slider
Breaking · 11.6% usage
+2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle18.4°
HRs allowed3
Pitches159
Curveball
Breaking · 8.5% usage
+5.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle8.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches116
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Adrian Houser.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.0 EV · 404 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-17
8
1
110.3
2026-06-16
8
0
—
2026-06-09
8
0
112.1
2026-06-04
9
2
105.5
2026-05-30
9
2
107.4
2026-05-23
9
0
107.0
2026-05-17
9
0
106.0
2026-05-12
9
1
109.0
2026-05-06
9
2
104.8
2026-04-24
9
2
107.4
2026-04-18
9
1
109.5
2026-04-12
9
1
108.8
2026-04-06
9
0
112.5
2026-04-01
9
0
108.6
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Adrian Houser isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.