TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.18×

CHC @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 1:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph cross 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:40p

+3 ↑

2:40p

+5 ↑

3:40p

+6 ↑

4:40p

+9 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 5:40p window peaks +9

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Lowder ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 39 · vs Peterson → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 62

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Miguel Amaya — D ●●●●●

3 Alex Bregman — C ●●●○○

FADE David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 57

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart — C ●●○○○

3 Dane Myers — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 31.9% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Peterson Edge — 0.232 · 94.7 · 9.9% 46.2% 32.8% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Lowder Edge — 0.296 · 90.8 · 11.2% 33.3% 31.9% F B O B 74

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Lowder — 0.191 · 88.1 · 7.6% 16.7% 16.1% F B O C 53

· CHC Ian Happ vs Lowder Edge — 0.196 · 89.5 · 10.4% 11.1% 16.8% F B O C 58

· CHC Michael Busch vs Lowder Edge — 0.153 · 88.4 · 9.3% 18.2% 9.7% F B O C 51

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.204 · 90.3 · 8.7% 7.7% 15.3% F B O C 54

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.228 · 90.2 · 10.1% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 55

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Lowder — 0.201 · 88.7 · 9.9% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CHC Miguel Amaya vs Lowder — 0.139 · 87.7 · 8.1% 50.0% 12.4% F B O D 48

· CIN Dane Myers vs Peterson Edge — 0.115 · 89.5 · 5.2% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Peterson — 0.196 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 46

· CHC Pedro Ramirez vs Lowder Edge — 0.157 · 89.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 42

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.152 · 88.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Peterson Edge — 0.169 · 91.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 47

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Lowder — 0.090 · 85.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· CIN Ke'Bryan Hayes COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.089 · 90.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Rhett Lowder — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for David Peterson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Bregman Busch Amaya Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Lowder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 66

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 74

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 3 mph cross 84°F open

↑

3 mph · cross

87°F

1:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

88°F

2:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

91°F

3:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

94°F

4:40p

↑

5 mph · out

93°F

5:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 84°F, wind 3 mph S (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 74 B — WARM 1 0.296 90.8 11.2% 29.7%vs RHP 396 23.2% 33.3% 31.9% 35

2 Ian Happ 58 C — WARM 18 0.196 89.5 10.4% 23.2%vs RHP 401 17.1% 11.1% 16.8% 17

3 Michael Conforto 55 C — COOL 26 0.228 90.2 10.1% 20.3%vs RHP 397 9.8% 0.0% 15.9% 23

4 Seiya Suzuki 55 C — WARM 33 0.201 88.7 9.9% 18.2%vs RHP 406 15.3% 0.0% 14.8% 28

5 Alex Bregman 53 C — WARM 43 0.191 88.1 7.6% 19.2%vs RHP 389 13.2% 16.7% 16.1% 36

6 Michael Busch 51 C — · 55 0.153 88.4 9.3% 12.6%vs RHP 404 13.6% 18.2% 9.7% 24

7 Miguel Amaya 48 D — WARM 69 0.139 87.7 8.1% 15.6%vs RHP 387 10.8% 50.0% 12.4% 6

8 Pedro Ramirez 42 D — WARM 111 0.157 89.0 6.5% 11.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 29

9 Nico Hoerner 33 D — WARM 182 0.090 85.9 3.6% 6.1%vs RHP 383 5.3% 0.0% 8.1% 42

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 66 C+ — HOT 4 0.232 94.7 9.9% 40.0%vs LHP 404 18.5% 46.2% 32.8% 29

2 Sal Stewart 54 C — COOL 39 0.204 90.3 8.7% 27.6%vs LHP 397 17.1% 7.7% 15.3% 34

3 Tyler Stephenson 47 D — · 83 0.169 91.0 8.7% 7.7%vs LHP 392 9.7% 0.0% 9.8% 26

4 Jj Bleday 46 D — COOL 84 0.196 88.5 7.6% 19.2%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 24

5 Matt Mclain 41 D — COOL 118 0.152 88.1 7.6% 22.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 18

6 Dane Myers 39 D — WARM 136 0.115 89.5 5.2% 14.3%vs LHP 383 7.0% 10.0% 8.4% 22

7 Ke'Bryan Hayes 39 D — COOL 138 0.089 90.5 6.6% 10.0%vs LHP 387 9.1% 0.0% 7.9% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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