TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ BAL

Suppressed air · 0.98×

MIL @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:20p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:20p

+2 ↑

8:20p

+0 ↑

9:20p

-2 ↑

10:20p

-4 ↑

11:20p

best window is early — 7:20p at +2

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 37 · vs Misiorowski ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 39 · vs Young → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 89

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●●

3 Samuel Basallo — D ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 79

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●●

2 William Contreras — D ●●●●○

3 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 27.9% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Young Edge — 0.226 · 92.3 · 9.7% 50.0% 27.9% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.239 · 94.0 · 7.9% 41.7% 32.2% F B O C 58

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Misiorowski — 0.245 · 91.4 · 7.6% 33.3% 28.0% F B O C 54

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Young — 0.198 · 91.7 · 9.1% 25.0% 20.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIL William Contreras vs Young — 0.148 · 90.4 · 7.5% 33.3% 16.0% F B O D 47

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Young Edge — 0.163 · 93.4 · 9.1% 18.2% 19.7% F B O D 49

· MIL Brice Turang vs Young Edge — 0.173 · 90.3 · 7.1% 18.2% 17.5% F B O D 47

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.188 · 90.5 · 7.2% 12.5% 15.1% F B O D 44

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Young Edge — 0.141 · 89.1 · 8.0% 12.5% 9.4% F B O D 43

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Young — 0.133 · 89.0 · 5.3% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 38

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.174 · 89.2 · 5.6% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 39

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.144 · 87.9 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.125 · 88.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Young Edge — 0.090 · 86.8 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 32

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Young Edge — 0.089 · 85.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Young — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Misiorowski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Turang Contreras Alonso Mayo Basallo

Legend

attack side — vs Misiorowski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jake Bauers — · 61

Pete Alonso — · 58

Coby Mayo — · 54

Jackson Chourio — · 55

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:20p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:20p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:20p

↑

3 mph · cross

75°F

9:20p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

75°F

10:20p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

11:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 76°F, wind 4 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 61 C+ — WARM 11 0.226 92.3 9.7% 28.1%vs RHP 401 20.0% 50.0% 27.9% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 55 C — · 29 0.198 91.7 9.1% 19.1%vs RHP 401 17.5% 25.0% 20.6% 39

3 Garrett Mitchell 49 D — WARM 61 0.163 93.4 9.1% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.2% 18.2% 19.7% 24

4 Brice Turang 47 D — WARM 75 0.173 90.3 7.1% 23.9%vs RHP 406 11.0% 18.2% 17.5% 28

5 William Contreras 47 D — WARM 78 0.148 90.4 7.5% 15.5%vs RHP 408 11.6% 33.3% 16.0% 27

6 Christian Yelich 43 D — COOL 109 0.141 89.1 8.0% 20.0%vs RHP 397 8.7% 12.5% 9.4% 25

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D — WARM 144 0.133 89.0 5.3% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.7% 10.0% 8.8% 28

8 David Hamilton 32 D — COOL 190 0.090 86.8 4.6% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.1% 0.0% 7.1% 10

9 Sal Frelick 30 D — COOL 200 0.089 85.9 4.0% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.4% 0.0% 7.1% 22

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 58 C — COOL 17 0.239 94.0 7.9% 32.2%vs RHP 401 22.7% 41.7% 32.2% 29

2 Coby Mayo 54 C — WARM 36 0.245 91.4 7.6% 17.0%vs RHP 411 18.3% 33.3% 28.0% 34

3 Samuel Basallo 44 D — COOL 100 0.188 90.5 7.2% 27.1%vs RHP 400 14.0% 12.5% 15.1% 17

4 Gunnar Henderson 39 D — COOL 132 0.174 89.2 5.6% 16.9%vs RHP 393 13.8% 8.3% 10.4% 27

5 Colton Cowser 37 D — COOL 153 0.144 87.9 6.5% 20.3%vs RHP 412 14.0% 0.0% 9.0% 14

6 Leody Taveras 29 D — COOL 203 0.125 88.0 4.1% 12.1%vs RHP 403 4.5% 0.0% 7.4% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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