TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.48×

ATH @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 16 mph in 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

-15 ↑

1:40p

-15 ↑

2:40p

-14 ↑

3:40p

-14 ↑

4:40p

-12 ↑

5:40p

conditions build late — the 5:40p window peaks -12

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 22 · vs Williams ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 28 · vs Perkins → edge: Zack Gelof

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 99

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●○○

2 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

3 Zack Gelof — C ●●●○○

FADE Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 92

1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●○

2 Nathaniel Lowe — C ●●●○○

3 Jo Adell — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zack Gelof: Match 24.8% · 14D pace 16.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Zack Gelof ✶ vs Williams — 0.209 · 89.6 · 10.2% 16.7% 24.8% F B O C 53

· CLE Nathaniel Lowe vs Perkins Edge — 0.197 · 89.4 · 8.8% 12.5% 24.6% F B O C 51

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Williams — 0.224 · 91.5 · 12.4% 0.0% 18.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Perkins Edge — 0.164 · 87.8 · 6.7% 36.4% 19.0% F B O D 47

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Williams Edge — 0.158 · 89.7 · 9.5% 25.0% 18.6% F B O D 46

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Williams — 0.126 · 90.9 · 9.3% 25.0% 16.9% F B O D 43

· ATH Tommy White COOL vs Williams — 0.081 · 85.7 · 8.7% 25.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· ATH Donovan Walton vs Williams Edge — 0.177 · 87.0 · 7.5% 14.3% 16.4% F B O D 42

· CLE Jo Adell vs Perkins — 0.162 · 90.2 · 8.9% 16.7% 12.9% F B O D 48

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.066 · 83.7 · 1.9% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 24

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Perkins Edge — 0.195 · 87.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 43

· ATH Alika Williams vs Williams — 0.159 · 84.5 · 3.6% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 33

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Perkins Edge — 0.163 · 91.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 40

· ATH Denzel Clarke vs Williams — 0.015 · 88.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 30

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.165 · 87.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.116 · 90.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.140 · 88.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· CLE Angel Genao vs Perkins Edge — 0.086 · 90.9 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Gavin Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jack Perkins — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Bolte Walton White Lowe Adell Bazzana

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Travis Bazzana — · 47

Lawrence Butler — · 46

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 16 mph in 67°F open

-15

↑

16 mph · in

68°F

1:40p

-15

↑

16 mph · in

67°F

2:40p

-14

↑

16 mph · in

67°F

3:40p

-14

↑

16 mph · in

67°F

4:40p

-12

↑

15 mph · in

66°F

5:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.48× 67°F, wind 16 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.83 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 55 C — COOL 30 0.224 91.5 12.4% 22.9%vs RHP 417 19.4% 0.0% 18.9% 13

2 Zack Gelof ✶ 53 C — WARM 41 0.209 89.6 10.2% 24.1%vs RHP 397 20.6% 16.7% 24.8% 29

3 Lawrence Butler 46 D — WARM 85 0.158 89.7 9.5% 24.5%vs RHP 408 10.4% 25.0% 18.6% 28

4 Henry Bolte 43 D — WARM 107 0.126 90.9 9.3% 14.8%vs RHP 398 12.2% 25.0% 16.9% 20

5 Donovan Walton 42 D — · 112 0.177 87.0 7.5% 14.6%vs RHP 389 12.9% 14.3% 16.4% 27

6 Jonah Heim 39 D — COOL 131 0.165 87.5 8.2% 6.8%vs RHP 409 8.3% 0.0% 9.0% 19

7 Tommy White 37 D — COOL 152 0.081 85.7 8.7% 11.5%vs RHP 387 15.0% 25.0% 9.6% 20

8 Alika Williams 33 D — WARM 181 0.159 84.5 3.6% 14.3%vs RHP 372 3.8% 0.0% 12.0% 23

9 Denzel Clarke 30 D — WARM 199 0.015 88.1 5.0% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 1

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nathaniel Lowe 51 C — WARM 46 0.197 89.4 8.8% 25.0%vs RHP 395 15.1% 12.5% 24.6% 22

2 Jo Adell 48 D — WARM 67 0.162 90.2 8.9% 12.3%vs RHP 417 13.7% 16.7% 12.9% 29

3 Travis Bazzana 47 D — WARM 74 0.164 87.8 6.7% 18.5%vs RHP 393 13.2% 36.4% 19.0% 31

4 Angel Martinez 43 D — WARM 104 0.195 87.6 8.2% 20.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 20

5 Chase Delauter 40 D — · 122 0.163 91.3 7.4% 20.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 20

6 Patrick Bailey 38 D — COOL 145 0.116 90.3 7.8% 15.2%vs RHP 409 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% 19

7 Angel Genao 36 D — · 166 0.086 90.9 6.7% 11.1%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 18

8 Jose Ramirez 35 D — COOL 168 0.140 88.7 6.2% 8.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 33

9 Steven Kwan 24 D — COOL 216 0.066 83.7 1.9% 4.0%vs RHP 367 2.1% 8.3% 7.2% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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