TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.17×

PHI @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph out 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:10p

+7 ↑

2:10p

+6 ↑

3:10p

+6 ↑

4:10p

+6 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +7

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 30 · vs Tong ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 23 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jonah Tong RHP · NYM

leak 17

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 5

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — D ●●●●○

2 Juan Soto — C ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 29.6% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.278 · 92.3 · 10.7% 30.8% 29.6% F B O C+ 66

· NYM Juan Soto vs Sánchez — 0.253 · 92.6 · 10.1% 23.1% 18.2% F B O C 56

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Tong Edge — 0.222 · 90.2 · 8.7% 7.7% 15.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Sánchez Edge — 0.206 · 91.3 · 8.2% 23.1% 23.2% F B O D 49

· NYM Carson Benge vs Sánchez — 0.141 · 88.7 · 7.4% 23.1% 8.8% F B O D 39

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Tong — 0.140 · 88.2 · 6.7% 15.4% 8.3% F B O D 40

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Tong — 0.131 · 89.6 · 6.3% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 37

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.125 · 89.6 · 6.8% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 35

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Tong Edge — 0.090 · 87.0 · 3.6% 10.0% 6.0% F B O D 28

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.163 · 90.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 40

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Tong Edge — 0.147 · 89.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.124 · 86.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 33

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Tong — 0.138 · 90.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 38

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Tong Edge — 0.141 · 89.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 37

· PHI Luis Arraez vs Tong Edge — 0.113 · 86.3 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jonah Tong — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Soto Lindor Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Tong fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kyle Schwarber — · 66

Juan Soto — · 56

Francisco Lindor — · 49

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 9 mph out 67°F open

↑

9 mph · out

68°F

1:10p

↑

9 mph · out

68°F

2:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

68°F

3:10p

↑

8 mph · out

69°F

4:10p

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 67°F, wind 9 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jonah Tong · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 6 0.278 92.3 10.7% 41.1%vs RHP 402 23.4% 30.8% 29.6% 31

2 Bryce Harper 52 C — · 45 0.222 90.2 8.7% 35.3%vs RHP 403 17.3% 7.7% 15.1% 28

3 Trea Turner 40 D — COOL 125 0.140 88.2 6.7% 18.8%vs RHP 390 12.3% 15.4% 8.3% 39

4 Brandon Marsh 40 D — COOL 126 0.147 89.2 7.5% 16.9%vs RHP 391 10.4% 0.0% 8.2% 23

5 Alec Bohm 38 D — · 148 0.138 90.6 6.6% 12.3%vs RHP 394 9.9% 0.0% 7.3% 34

6 J.T. Realmuto 37 D — WARM 157 0.131 89.6 6.3% 18.0%vs RHP 397 5.9% 10.0% 7.5% 24

7 Bryson Stott 37 D — · 160 0.141 89.2 6.6% 8.9%vs RHP 393 7.0% 0.0% 7.0% 34

8 Justin Crawford 28 D — WARM 212 0.090 87.0 3.6% 4.0%vs RHP 395 2.7% 10.0% 6.0% 26

9 Luis Arraez 28 D — WARM 213 0.113 86.3 2.9% 3.6%vs RHP 372 3.8% 0.0% 6.0% 41

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 56 C — WARM 24 0.253 92.6 10.1% 13.5%vs LHP 402 20.8% 23.1% 18.2% 41

2 Francisco Lindor 49 D — · 59 0.206 91.3 8.2% 15.6%vs LHP 390 15.9% 23.1% 23.2% 36

3 Francisco Alvarez 40 D — COOL 123 0.163 90.3 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 17

4 Carson Benge 39 D — · 134 0.141 88.7 7.4% 17.2%vs LHP 392 11.5% 23.1% 8.8% 34

5 Bo Bichette 35 D — COOL 170 0.125 89.6 6.8% 20.0%vs LHP 388 10.0% 7.7% 9.2% 42

6 Marcus Semien 33 D — COOL 183 0.124 86.6 6.6% 9.1%vs LHP 391 9.4% 0.0% 7.9% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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