TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TB

Playable air · 1.05×

BOS @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Mickey Gasper conv 16 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 28 · vs Sandoval → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 95

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mickey Gasper — C ●●●○○

2 Roman Anthony — D ●●○○○

3 Jarren Duran — D ●●○○○

FADE Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 57

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●○

2 Victor Mesa Jr. — C ●●●○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 31.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.253 · 92.7 · 9.6% 25.0% 31.8% F B O C+ 65

· TB Victor Mesa Jr. vs Sandoval — 0.244 · 89.1 · 9.0% 20.0% 23.9% F B O C 56

· BOS Mickey Gasper vs Jax Edge — 0.214 · 88.8 · 9.4% 14.3% 18.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.113 · 85.3 · 3.8% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 36

· BOS Roman Anthony vs Jax Edge — 0.138 · 92.1 · 10.3% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 48

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.155 · 89.7 · 9.1% 12.5% 15.5% F B O D 49

· BOS Adley Rutschman vs Jax Edge — 0.180 · 88.8 · 7.9% 11.1% 13.4% F B O D 47

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Jax Edge — 0.142 · 86.8 · 6.9% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Jax — 0.132 · 83.2 · 5.1% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 38

· TB Ryan Vilade COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.201 · 89.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 49

· BOS Trevor Story COOL vs Jax — 0.112 · 87.1 · 6.7% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 39

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Sandoval Edge — 0.158 · 91.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· TB Ben Williamson vs Sandoval — 0.085 · 87.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 31

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.150 · 85.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 36

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Sandoval Edge — 0.073 · 85.5 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 29

· BOS Nate Eaton COOL vs Jax — 0.116 · 87.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· BOS Isiah Kiner-Falefa COOL vs Jax — 0.076 · 82.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Sandoval — 0.051 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Griffin Jax — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Patrick Sandoval — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gasper Duran Anthony Caminero Jr. Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero — · 65

Victor Mesa Jr. — · 56

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.61 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mickey Gasper 53 C — · 42 0.214 88.8 9.4% 22.5%vs RHP 393 18.2% 14.3% 18.3% 19

2 Jarren Duran 49 D — COOL 64 0.155 89.7 9.1% 26.5%vs RHP 401 13.6% 12.5% 15.5% 17

3 Roman Anthony 48 D — · 68 0.138 92.1 10.3% 14.8%vs RHP 397 8.9% 16.7% 12.8% 32

4 Adley Rutschman 47 D — · 80 0.180 88.8 7.9% 15.8%vs RHP 395 10.3% 11.1% 13.4% 25

5 Nick Sogard 43 D — WARM 108 0.142 86.8 6.9% 11.1%vs RHP 381 12.0% 10.0% 9.8% 25

6 Nate Eaton 40 D — COOL 127 0.116 87.0 7.8% 10.0% 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 9

7 Trevor Story 39 D — COOL 137 0.112 87.1 6.7% 11.1%vs RHP 408 6.7% 8.3% 8.2% 29

8 Caleb Durbin 38 D — WARM 143 0.132 83.2 5.1% 18.0%vs RHP 376 8.3% 8.3% 9.1% 26

9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 34 D — COOL 176 0.076 82.7 4.6% 6.2%vs RHP 377 6.2% 0.0% 7.6% 13

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 7 0.253 92.7 9.6% 32.0%vs LHP 413 25.2% 25.0% 31.8% 33

2 Victor Mesa Jr. 56 C — · 20 0.244 89.1 9.0% 10.0%vs LHP 401 14.3% 20.0% 23.9% 28

3 Ryan Vilade 49 D — COOL 63 0.201 89.6 7.1% 19.4%vs LHP 414 15.4% 0.0% 16.9% 7

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D — · 117 0.158 91.0 7.1% 20.5%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 38

5 Jonny Deluca 36 D — COOL 161 0.150 85.5 4.7% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 24

6 Nick Fortes 36 D — COOL 162 0.113 85.3 3.8% 5.0%vs LHP 390 5.1% 20.0% 12.0% 12

7 Ben Williamson 31 D — · 193 0.085 87.3 3.2% 7.7%vs LHP 392 3.8% 0.0% 8.8% 0

8 Taylor Walls 29 D — COOL 201 0.073 85.5 3.7% 3.5%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 8.6% 3

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 218 0.051 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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