TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ COL

Neutral air · 1.01×

SEA @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph in 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -2

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 24 · vs Sugano ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 27 · vs Anderson → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 93

1.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — C+ ●●○○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Kade Anderson LHP · SEA

leak 82

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 31.0% · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.281 · 90.0 · 10.7% 22.2% 31.0% F B O C+ 66

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Sugano — 0.198 · 90.9 · 9.6% 25.0% 23.3% F B O C 59

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.188 · 90.0 · 13.2% 16.7% 13.3% F B O C+ 60

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Anderson — 0.244 · 89.6 · 8.5% 11.1% 17.3% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Sugano Edge — 0.224 · 91.2 · 11.9% 8.3% 17.3% F B O C+ 61

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Sugano — 0.153 · 90.3 · 10.1% 8.3% 10.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Anderson Edge — 0.194 · 87.8 · 6.3% 15.4% 20.1% F B O D 47

· COL Kyle Karros vs Anderson Edge — 0.162 · 89.5 · 8.0% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 47

· SEA Cole Young HOT vs Sugano Edge — 0.140 · 88.3 · 7.7% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 46

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Anderson Edge — 0.123 · 87.6 · 7.2% 10.0% 7.8% F B O D 39

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.133 · 87.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 43

· COL Jake Mccarthy HOT vs Anderson — 0.192 · 85.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 44

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Anderson — 0.152 · 84.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Sugano Edge — 0.092 · 87.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Anderson — 0.116 · 89.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kade Anderson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman — · 66

Randy Arozarena — · 59

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph in 65°F open

-2

↑

3 mph · in

66°F

1:10p · peak

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

68°F

2:10p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

70°F

3:10p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

69°F

4:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

67°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 65°F, wind 3 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 61 C+ — · 12 0.224 91.2 11.9% 23.6%vs RHP 403 14.7% 8.3% 17.3% 36

2 Cal Raleigh 60 C+ — COOL 14 0.188 90.0 13.2% 16.1%vs RHP 386 16.5% 16.7% 13.3% 25

3 Randy Arozarena 59 C — · 15 0.198 90.9 9.6% 23.8%vs RHP 389 16.1% 25.0% 23.3% 35

4 Julio Rodríguez 51 C — WARM 54 0.153 90.3 10.1% 20.0%vs RHP 404 14.4% 8.3% 10.2% 33

5 Cole Young 46 D — HOT 92 0.140 88.3 7.7% 18.2%vs RHP 384 11.0% 11.1% 10.2% 31

6 J.P. Crawford 43 D — COOL 105 0.133 87.7 8.6% 20.4%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 42

7 Josh Naylor 38 D — · 147 0.092 87.1 7.3% 10.1%vs RHP 392 5.3% 0.0% 8.5% 41

vs Kade Anderson · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 5 0.281 90.0 10.7% 35.5%vs LHP 408 23.2% 22.2% 31.0% 26

2 Mickey Moniak 55 C — WARM 31 0.244 89.6 8.5% 16.7%vs LHP 416 16.0% 11.1% 17.3% 18

3 Cole Carrigg 47 D — WARM 73 0.194 87.8 6.3% 10.7%vs LHP 407 10.0% 15.4% 20.1% 33

4 Kyle Karros 47 D — WARM 79 0.162 89.5 8.0% 14.3%vs LHP 418 11.3% 18.2% 13.6% 31

5 Jake Mccarthy 44 D — HOT 98 0.192 85.4 6.6% 18.2%vs LHP 415 9.5% 0.0% 12.4% 44

6 Tj Rumfield 39 D — COOL 133 0.152 84.1 6.0% 11.8%vs LHP 412 9.5% 0.0% 9.0% 31

7 Ezequiel Tovar 39 D — WARM 139 0.123 87.6 7.2% 5.1%vs LHP 404 7.7% 10.0% 7.8% 19

8 Troy Johnston 33 D — COOL 184 0.116 89.8 4.1% 8.0%vs LHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 7.3% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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