TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.23×

TOR @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 2:35p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+7 ↑

1:35p

+7 ↑

2:35p

+7 ↑

3:35p

+7 ↑

4:35p

+8 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks +8

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 35 · vs deGrom ⟷ Corey Seager conv 28 · vs Miles → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 78

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●●

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

3 Andres Gimenez — D ●○○○○

FADE Spencer Miles RHP · TOR

leak 63

0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · stingy — thin edge

1 Corey Seager — C ●●●●○

2 Josh Jung — D ●●●○○

3 Wyatt Langford — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 28.8% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs deGrom — 0.228 · 90.5 · 10.5% 41.7% 28.8% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Corey Seager vs Miles Edge — 0.199 · 91.8 · 7.7% 33.3% 23.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TEX Josh Jung vs Miles — 0.150 · 90.6 · 5.4% 28.6% 7.1% F B O D 39

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Miles — 0.193 · 88.9 · 5.8% 16.7% 17.2% F B O D 45

· TEX Jake Burger vs Miles — 0.192 · 90.2 · 7.1% 16.7% 16.4% F B O D 47

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Miles Edge — 0.148 · 92.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs deGrom Edge — 0.114 · 86.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 32

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Miles — 0.168 · 88.8 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 38

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.116 · 85.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Miles Edge — 0.124 · 87.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 32

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs deGrom — 0.106 · 84.1 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 29

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Miles Edge — 0.040 · 84.6 · — 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jacob deGrom — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Spencer Miles — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Seager Burger Langford Jung

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kazuma Okamoto — · 60

Corey Seager — · 51

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 1:35p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 5 mph out 88°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

90°F

1:35p

↑

4 mph · out

91°F

2:35p

↑

4 mph · out

93°F

3:35p

↑

4 mph · out

93°F

4:35p

↑

5 mph · out

90°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 88°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 60 C+ — WARM 13 0.228 90.5 10.5% 27.1%vs RHP 400 19.8% 41.7% 28.8% 28

2 Nathan Lukes 32 D — WARM 188 0.114 86.6 4.7% 15.2%vs RHP 382 7.5% 0.0% 8.8% 28

3 Andres Gimenez 30 D — COOL 197 0.116 85.3 5.2% 9.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 29

4 Ernie Clement 29 D — COOL 204 0.106 84.1 4.2% 5.4%vs RHP 376 6.4% 0.0% 7.3% 34

vs Spencer Miles · RHP 0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.42 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corey Seager 51 C — · 47 0.199 91.8 7.7% 22.6%vs RHP 397 17.9% 33.3% 23.0% 37

2 Jake Burger 47 D — WARM 77 0.192 90.2 7.1% 20.0%vs RHP 402 15.7% 16.7% 16.4% 23

3 Wyatt Langford 45 D — WARM 96 0.193 88.9 5.8% 23.6%vs RHP 401 14.8% 16.7% 17.2% 19

4 Josh Jung 39 D — WARM 140 0.150 90.6 5.4% 15.1%vs RHP 381 11.3% 28.6% 7.1% 23

5 Ezequiel Duran 38 D — COOL 146 0.168 88.8 5.0% 20.3%vs RHP 397 12.5% 0.0% 8.5% 33

6 Brandon Nimmo 37 D — COOL 154 0.148 92.1 6.2% 11.4%vs RHP 404 9.0% 0.0% 8.8% 27

7 Evan Carter 32 D — COOL 189 0.124 87.6 4.6% 12.2%vs RHP 380 7.2% 0.0% 7.9% 15

8 Nicky Lopez 17 D — COOL 219 0.040 84.6 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.7% 0.0% 6.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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