TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.80×

MIN @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 4:07p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 6 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:07p

+2 ↑

2:07p

+2 ↑

3:07p

+2 ↑

4:07p

+1 ↑

5:07p

best window is early — 2:07p at +2

Best of game Zach Neto conv 21 · vs Kremer ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 15 · vs Johnson → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · MIN

leak 95

2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — C ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 84

1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●○○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●○○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: Match 19.7% · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Kremer — 0.198 · 89.8 · 10.2% 23.1% 19.7% F B O C 51

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.225 · 92.1 · 10.6% 15.4% 14.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Josh Bell vs Johnson Edge — 0.165 · 89.8 · 9.8% 16.7% 11.0% F B O D 46

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Kremer Edge — 0.156 · 88.6 · 9.1% 10.0% 15.1% F B O D 42

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Kremer — 0.141 · 87.7 · 8.0% 15.4% 8.4% F B O D 39

· LAA Mike Trout vs Kremer — 0.180 · 89.9 · 12.0% 7.7% 11.0% F B O D 48

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Johnson Edge — 0.177 · 88.1 · 6.3% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 42

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Johnson — 0.154 · 89.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 44

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Johnson Edge — 0.096 · 89.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 32

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Kremer — 0.110 · 87.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 33

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Kremer Edge — 0.086 · 86.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 28

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Johnson — 0.108 · 85.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 31

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Johnson — 0.088 · 86.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dean Kremer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Zach Neto — · 51

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 1:07p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 6 mph out 77°F open

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

1:07p

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

2:07p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

79°F

3:07p

↑

7 mph · out

79°F

4:07p

↑

6 mph · out

78°F

5:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.80× 77°F, wind 6 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 1.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 54 C — COOL 40 0.225 92.1 10.6% 21.0%vs RHP 390 17.6% 15.4% 14.6% 35

2 Josh Bell 46 D — WARM 90 0.165 89.8 9.8% 20.6%vs RHP 407 12.0% 16.7% 11.0% 34

3 Royce Lewis 44 D — COOL 103 0.154 89.9 10.3% 15.2%vs RHP 402 12.7% 0.0% 7.7% 29

4 Brooks Lee 42 D — WARM 116 0.177 88.1 6.3% 20.4%vs RHP 374 15.5% 8.3% 9.9% 35

5 Victor Caratini 32 D — COOL 186 0.096 89.5 7.9% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 14

6 Luke Keaschall 31 D — COOL 195 0.108 85.4 5.6% 9.6%vs RHP 378 6.6% 0.0% 6.0% 38

7 Austin Martin 29 D — COOL 208 0.088 86.8 5.4% 4.0%vs RHP 394 2.8% 0.0% 5.5% 9

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.16 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 51 C — · 48 0.198 89.8 10.2% 18.8%vs RHP 404 16.3% 23.1% 19.7% 30

2 Mike Trout 48 D — · 71 0.180 89.9 12.0% 21.9%vs RHP 409 12.8% 7.7% 11.0% 25

3 Josh Lowe 42 D — WARM 113 0.156 88.6 9.1% 20.0%vs RHP 393 10.2% 10.0% 15.1% 11

4 Vaughn Grissom 39 D — COOL 135 0.141 87.7 8.0% 19.6%vs RHP 389 10.2% 15.4% 8.4% 30

5 Oswald Peraza 33 D — WARM 185 0.110 87.5 7.5% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% 11

6 Wade Meckler 28 D — COOL 210 0.086 86.8 5.1% 8.3%vs RHP 396 4.8% 0.0% 6.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.