TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CWS

Playable air · 1.05×

DET @ CWS

Rate Field · 2:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 27 · vs Melton ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 25 · vs Martin → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 81

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Teel — D ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 57

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — C ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 35.1% · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.264 · 93.5 · 10.9% 18.2% 35.1% F B O C+ 66

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Martin — 0.194 · 89.5 · 8.9% 25.0% 24.4% F B O C 55

· DET Riley Greene vs Martin Edge — 0.199 · 90.3 · 9.9% 23.1% 21.9% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Melton — 0.228 · 90.2 · 9.3% 25.0% 16.4% F B O C 59

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.216 · 88.7 · 8.9% 0.0% 16.9% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CWS Kyle Teel HOT vs Melton Edge — 0.158 · 84.7 · 9.0% 22.2% 21.1% F B O D 49

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Martin — 0.168 · 89.6 · 7.6% 22.2% 18.8% F B O D 49

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Melton — 0.130 · 87.3 · 5.2% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 38

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Martin Edge — 0.151 · 88.0 · 6.8% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 43

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Melton Edge — 0.173 · 89.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 46

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Melton Edge — 0.125 · 88.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Martin — 0.107 · 86.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Melton Edge — 0.121 · 87.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· CWS Brenton Doyle vs Melton — 0.095 · 89.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Davis Martin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Troy Melton — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Greene Torkelson Lee Murakami Vargas Teel

Legend

attack side — vs Melton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Spencer Torkelson — · 55

Riley Greene — · 56

Kyle Teel — · 49

Hao-Yu Lee — · 49

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.05× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 56 C — · 23 0.199 90.3 9.9% 17.2%vs RHP 400 13.4% 23.1% 21.9% 35

2 Spencer Torkelson 55 C — · 27 0.194 89.5 8.9% 26.6%vs RHP 391 15.4% 25.0% 24.4% 21

3 Hao-Yu Lee 49 D — COOL 62 0.168 89.6 7.6% 20.0%vs RHP 396 17.4% 22.2% 18.8% 25

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 43 D — WARM 106 0.151 88.0 6.8% 11.3%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 14.1% 39

5 Gleyber Torres 37 D — · 156 0.107 86.4 6.4% 13.3%vs RHP 393 7.9% 0.0% 8.3% 25

vs Troy Melton · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 3 0.264 93.5 10.9% 36.2%vs RHP 402 18.4% 18.2% 35.1% 16

2 Miguel Vargas 59 C — COOL 16 0.228 90.2 9.3% 17.0%vs RHP 393 20.6% 25.0% 16.4% 36

3 Colson Montgomery 55 C — COOL 32 0.216 88.7 8.9% 27.3%vs RHP 397 20.9% 0.0% 16.9% 14

4 Kyle Teel 49 D — HOT 60 0.158 84.7 9.0% 28.6%vs RHP 399 15.0% 22.2% 21.1% 14

5 Andrew Benintendi 46 D — WARM 89 0.173 89.2 7.3% 14.6%vs RHP 388 11.7% 0.0% 11.6% 19

6 Chase Meidroth 38 D — WARM 141 0.130 87.3 5.2% 12.7%vs RHP 382 7.4% 7.7% 10.0% 32

7 Braden Montgomery 38 D — WARM 142 0.125 88.8 5.5% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.5% 0.0% 9.1% 20

8 Sam Antonacci 37 D — · 155 0.121 87.3 5.7% 10.7%vs RHP 390 7.0% 0.0% 8.3% 31

9 Brenton Doyle 37 D — WARM 159 0.095 89.0 6.0% 6.2%vs RHP 405 4.8% 0.0% 7.1% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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