TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.88×

WSH @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 2 mph in 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

1:15p

-6 ↑

2:15p

-6 ↑

3:15p

-5 ↑

4:15p

-7 ↑

5:15p

conditions build late — the 4:15p window peaks -5

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 17 · vs Irvin ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 31 · vs Mathews → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Jake Irvin RHP · WSH

leak 95

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson — C ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker — C ●○○○○

3 Jj Wetherholt — D ●○○○○

FADE Quinn Mathews LHP · STL

leak 62

0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams — D ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews — D ●●○○○

3 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 12.3% · 14D pace 50.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Alec Burleson vs Irvin Edge — 0.186 · 92.0 · 10.7% 18.2% 15.3% F B O C 50

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Mathews — 0.253 · 95.2 · 9.1% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 51

· STL Jordan Walker vs Irvin — 0.202 · 92.7 · 11.8% 0.0% 12.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Mathews — 0.228 · 89.6 · 6.5% 50.0% 12.3% F B O D 45

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Mathews Edge — 0.152 · 90.2 · 6.3% 20.0% 10.3% F B O D 37

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Mathews Edge — 0.171 · 88.0 · 4.6% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 34

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Mathews — 0.184 · 88.6 · 6.4% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 37

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Irvin Edge — 0.126 · 89.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Irvin — 0.131 · 89.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· STL Bryan Torres COOL vs Irvin Edge — 0.109 · 86.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· STL Thomas Saggese vs Irvin — 0.138 · 90.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 38

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Irvin Edge — 0.120 · 85.8 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Irvin — 0.111 · 86.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Mathews Edge — 0.141 · 87.7 · 4.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 29

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Mathews — 0.089 · 82.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 22

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Mathews Edge — 0.034 · 84.9 · 2.0% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 13

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Quinn Mathews — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jake Irvin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Crews Ruiz Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Irvin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 2 mph in 84°F open

-6

↑

2 mph · in

85°F

1:15p

-6

↑

2 mph · in

86°F

2:15p

-6

↑

2 mph · cross

87°F

3:15p

-5

↑

2 mph · cross

87°F

4:15p · peak

-7

↑

4 mph · cross

83°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 84°F, wind 2 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Quinn Mathews · LHP 0.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 51 C — COOL 52 0.253 95.2 9.1% 40.9%vs LHP 413 22.9% 0.0% 15.6% 23

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 45 D — · 97 0.228 89.6 6.5% 23.3%vs LHP 396 30.8% 50.0% 12.3% 27

3 Dylan Crews 37 D — COOL 151 0.152 90.2 6.3% 20.7%vs LHP 405 14.0% 20.0% 10.3% 29

4 Daylen Lile 37 D — WARM 158 0.184 88.6 6.4% 3.6%vs LHP 401 11.8% 11.1% 7.4% 25

5 Keibert Ruiz 34 D — WARM 175 0.171 88.0 4.6% 21.4%vs LHP 380 10.7% 16.7% 10.6% 16

6 Jacob Young 29 D — COOL 207 0.141 87.7 4.9% 8.3%vs LHP 399 6.3% 0.0% 5.8% 22

7 Jorbit Vivas 22 D — WARM 217 0.089 82.9 3.6% 4.3% 392 2.2% 0.0% 5.4% 14

8 Nasim Nunez 13 D — COOL 220 0.034 84.9 2.0% 5.0%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 8

vs Jake Irvin · RHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C — WARM 53 0.202 92.7 11.8% 25.3%vs RHP 406 16.4% 0.0% 12.7% 21

2 Alec Burleson 50 C — WARM 56 0.186 92.0 10.7% 23.0%vs RHP 405 14.3% 18.2% 15.3% 28

3 Thomas Saggese 38 D — WARM 149 0.138 90.3 10.0% 5.3%vs RHP 399 4.3% 0.0% 6.6% 35

4 Jj Wetherholt 34 D — COOL 174 0.126 89.9 8.8% 15.5%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 4

5 Nathan Church 34 D — COOL 179 0.120 85.8 7.6% 12.9%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 6.6% 33

6 Ivan Herrera 33 D — COOL 180 0.131 89.4 7.4% 19.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 29

7 Bryan Torres 32 D — COOL 191 0.109 86.7 5.8% 17.4%vs RHP 370 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% 19

8 José Fermín 29 D — COOL 206 0.111 86.1 4.8% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.3% 0.0% 6.3% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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