TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.37×

ATL @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 3 mph out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:10p

+10 ↑

2:10p

+11 ↑

3:10p

+12 ↑

4:10p

+12 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +12

Best of game Isaac Paredes conv 25 · vs Pérez ⟷ Matt Olson conv 28 · vs Brown → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 95

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●○

2 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●●○○

FADE Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 84

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Drake Baldwin — C ●●○○○

3 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 33.1% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Brown Edge — 0.256 · 92.3 · 9.7% 23.1% 33.1% F B O C+ 69

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Pérez Edge — 0.170 · 86.2 · 5.0% 33.3% 17.2% F B O C 51

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.182 · 88.7 · 7.5% 27.3% 22.2% F B O C 56

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Pérez Edge — 0.196 · 88.5 · 6.1% 16.7% 20.6% F B O C 54

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Pérez — 0.288 · 94.3 · 9.1% 0.0% 36.5% F B O C+ 64

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.176 · 91.4 · 9.1% 15.4% 15.4% F B O C 56

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.189 · 88.8 · 6.9% 9.1% 13.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.148 · 90.2 · 6.6% 12.5% 11.0% F B O D 47

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Pérez Edge — 0.159 · 89.0 · 5.6% 11.1% 9.9% F B O D 47

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Brown Edge — 0.161 · 87.2 · 5.0% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 46

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.149 · 85.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 40

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Brown — 0.121 · 86.6 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Hunter Brown — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Martín Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Alvarez Smith Peña Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson — · 69

Cam Smith — · 56

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.15× Wind 3 mph out 88°F retractable

↑

3 mph · out

89°F

1:10p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

90°F

2:10p

+11

↑

5 mph · out

91°F

3:10p

+12

↑

6 mph · out

91°F

4:10p · peak

+12

↑

6 mph · out

90°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.37× 88°F, wind 3 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 69 C+ — · 2 0.256 92.3 9.7% 27.9%vs RHP 406 23.1% 23.1% 33.1% 39

2 Drake Baldwin 56 C — COOL 25 0.176 91.4 9.1% 22.7%vs RHP 401 15.6% 15.4% 15.4% 38

3 Mike Yastrzemski 47 D — COOL 81 0.148 90.2 6.6% 14.9%vs RHP 387 8.2% 12.5% 11.0% 21

4 Ozzie Albies 46 D — WARM 88 0.161 87.2 5.0% 13.2%vs RHP 388 13.0% 8.3% 11.7% 35

5 Mauricio Dubon 37 D — · 150 0.121 86.6 5.0% 9.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 42

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 64 C+ — COOL 9 0.288 94.3 9.1% 23.3%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 36.5% 24

2 Cam Smith 56 C — COOL 22 0.182 88.7 7.5% 22.6%vs LHP 410 13.4% 27.3% 22.2% 22

3 Jeremy Peña 54 C — · 37 0.196 88.5 6.1% 11.1%vs LHP 389 16.0% 16.7% 20.6% 29

4 Christian Walker 53 C — COOL 44 0.189 88.8 6.9% 22.7%vs LHP 393 16.1% 9.1% 13.7% 26

5 Isaac Paredes 51 C — WARM 50 0.170 86.2 5.0% 8.8%vs LHP 376 13.5% 33.3% 17.2% 29

6 Yainer Diaz 47 D — WARM 82 0.159 89.0 5.6% 11.1%vs LHP 390 11.1% 11.1% 9.9% 27

7 Jose Altuve 40 D — COOL 124 0.149 85.5 4.7% 15.8%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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