TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.98×

MIA @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

1:10p

+0 ↑

2:10p

-1 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +0

Best of game Javier Sanoja conv 13 · vs Buehler ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 21 · vs Alcantara → edge: Jackson Merrill

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 82

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Otto Lopez — D ●○○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 70

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill — D ●●●○○

2 Manny Machado — D ●●●○○

3 Ty France — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Merrill: Match 19.2% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill ✶ HOT vs Alcantara Edge — 0.192 · 91.6 · 8.6% 23.1% 19.2% F B O D 49

· SD Manny Machado vs Alcantara — 0.190 · 90.3 · 7.5% 23.1% 17.4% F B O D 47

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Buehler — 0.158 · 87.1 · 4.5% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 36

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Buehler Edge — 0.129 · 87.3 · 5.5% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 35

· SD Ty France vs Alcantara — 0.218 · 91.9 · 7.5% 9.1% 12.6% F B O D 46

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Alcantara — 0.176 · 93.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 40

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Buehler — 0.133 · 89.2 · 7.0% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 36

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Alcantara — 0.111 · 89.5 · 5.8% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 32

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Alcantara Edge — 0.079 · 87.0 · 4.5% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 26

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Buehler — 0.216 · 91.1 · 10.3% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 45

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Buehler Edge — 0.211 · 92.3 · 10.1% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 49

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Alcantara — 0.112 · 87.5 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· MIA Xavier Edwards vs Buehler Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Walker Buehler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sandy Alcantara — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jackson Merrill — · 49

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

76°F

1:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

2:10p

-1

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

3:10p

-2

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

4:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 75°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 49 D — · 65 0.211 92.3 10.1% 22.1%vs RHP 400 13.8% 0.0% 13.3% 27

2 Heriberto Hernández 45 D — COOL 94 0.216 91.1 10.3% 24.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 34

3 Javier Sanoja 36 D — WARM 164 0.158 87.1 4.5% 11.1%vs RHP 383 8.2% 16.7% 9.0% 42

4 Otto Lopez 36 D — · 167 0.133 89.2 7.0% 8.2%vs RHP 398 6.7% 8.3% 7.2% 36

5 Jakob Marsee 35 D — COOL 172 0.129 87.3 5.5% 13.5%vs RHP 386 8.9% 16.7% 8.6% 35

6 Xavier Edwards 27 D — WARM 214 0.091 86.8 5.1% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 6.1% 11

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill ✶ 49 D — HOT 66 0.192 91.6 8.6% 20.2%vs RHP 411 16.3% 23.1% 19.2% 42

2 Manny Machado 47 D — WARM 76 0.190 90.3 7.5% 26.1%vs RHP 397 17.6% 23.1% 17.4% 39

3 Ty France 46 D — WARM 87 0.218 91.9 7.5% 24.6%vs RHP 390 15.5% 9.1% 12.6% 31

4 Fernando Tatis 40 D — · 121 0.176 93.0 8.6% 16.9%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 38

5 Xander Bogaerts 32 D — WARM 192 0.111 89.5 5.8% 16.2%vs RHP 404 7.6% 8.3% 6.9% 34

6 Freddy Fermin 29 D — WARM 202 0.112 87.5 4.8% 6.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 7.4% 7

7 Jake Cronenworth 26 D — WARM 215 0.079 87.0 4.5% 8.3%vs RHP 382 2.9% 8.3% 6.6% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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