TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.29×

SF @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 4:10p · 10 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 7 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

1:10p

+11 ↑

2:10p

+10 ↑

3:10p

+9 ↑

4:10p

+8 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +11

Best of game Bryce Eldridge conv 19 · vs Proxy ⟷ Mookie Betts conv 28 · vs Wilkinson → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 53

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●○○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●○○○○

FADE Matt Wilkinson LHP · SF

leak 48

1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Tucker — C ●●●●○

3 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 26.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Mookie Betts HOT vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.192 · 90.5 · 7.8% 33.3% 22.9% F B O C 56

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Wilkinson — 0.160 · 88.9 · 7.2% 38.5% 16.1% F B O C 51

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Wilkinson — 0.244 · 90.1 · 10.1% 26.7% 24.1% F B O C+ 65

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Proxy — 0.192 · 92.7 · 11.5% 18.2% 19.9% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Proxy — 0.152 · 86.6 · 5.7% 11.1% 16.3% F B O D 43

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.091 · 89.6 · 6.9% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 40

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.160 · 90.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 22.0% F B O D 47

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Proxy — 0.128 · 87.6 · 2.3% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 34

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Wilkinson Edge — 0.124 · 87.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 41

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Wilkinson — 0.149 · 89.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Matt Wilkinson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Eldridge Gilbert Muncy Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Mookie Betts — · 56

Max Muncy — · 65

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 7 mph out 75°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

75°F

1:10p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

2:10p · peak

+10

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

3:10p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

4:10p

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 75°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge 58 C — WARM 34 0.192 92.7 11.5% 18.3% 402 17.9% 18.2% 19.9% 27

2 Drew Gilbert 43 D — WARM 130 0.152 86.6 5.7% 12.0% 394 7.1% 11.1% 16.3% 16

3 Jung Hoo Lee 34 D — COOL 196 0.128 87.6 2.3% 7.8% 381 5.8% 9.1% 7.8% 38

vs Matt Wilkinson · LHP 1.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 8 0.244 90.1 10.1% 22.2%vs LHP 410 22.1% 26.7% 24.1% 43

2 Mookie Betts 56 C — HOT 21 0.192 90.5 7.8% 12.2%vs LHP 389 13.5% 33.3% 22.9% 36

3 Kyle Tucker 51 C — WARM 51 0.160 88.9 7.2% 10.0%vs LHP 392 10.3% 38.5% 16.1% 36

4 Teoscar Hernandez 47 D — WARM 72 0.160 90.3 9.0% 23.3%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 27

5 Freddie Freeman 46 D — COOL 93 0.149 89.4 7.9% 13.9%vs LHP 399 9.3% 0.0% 9.4% 27

6 Tommy Edman 41 D — COOL 120 0.124 87.2 6.1% 21.4%vs LHP 396 7.5% 0.0% 10.5% 30

7 Alex Freeland 40 D — · 129 0.091 89.6 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 366 3.7% 16.7% 7.5% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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