TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

NYY @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph out 93°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:10p

+4 ↑

2:10p

+1 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-2 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +4

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 33 · vs Warren ⟷ Ben Rice conv 28 · vs Burnes → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 84

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●●

2 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●●○

3 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●○○

FADE Corbin Burnes RHP

leak 76

2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cody Bellinger — D ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 28.4% · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Ben Rice ✶ vs Burnes Edge — 0.269 · 92.0 · 11.4% 27.3% 28.4% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Warren Edge — 0.233 · 91.8 · 9.7% 30.0% 24.1% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs Warren — 0.205 · 84.9 · 6.9% 41.7% 23.4% F B O D 49

· — Cody Bellinger vs Burnes Edge — 0.167 · 89.2 · 7.8% 33.3% 16.0% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Warren — 0.176 · 89.2 · 7.8% 27.3% 17.7% F B O D 45

· — Austin Wells vs Burnes Edge — 0.133 · 89.5 · 8.1% 27.3% 13.1% F B O D 42

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Warren — 0.155 · 90.6 · 8.8% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 41

· — Jose Caballero vs Burnes — 0.140 · 84.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 34

· — Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Burnes — 0.202 · 86.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 48

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.190 · 90.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 44

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Warren — 0.091 · 88.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 30

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Warren — 0.105 · 86.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 32

· — Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Burnes Edge — 0.135 · 90.5 · 9.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 40

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.109 · 87.3 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.126 · 87.3 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Will Warren — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Corbin Burnes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Moreno Rice Bellinger Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice — · 64

Corbin Carroll — · 55

Nolan Arenado — · 49

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 3 mph out 93°F retractable

↑

3 mph · out

94°F

1:10p

↑

4 mph · out

96°F

2:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · slight_out

98°F

3:10p

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

99°F

4:10p

-2

↑

3 mph · in

100°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 93°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 55 C — WARM 28 0.233 91.8 9.7% 16.5%vs RHP 402 14.3% 30.0% 24.1% 23

2 Nolan Arenado 49 D — HOT 58 0.205 84.9 6.9% 22.7%vs RHP 389 16.7% 41.7% 23.4% 31

3 Gabriel Moreno 45 D — · 95 0.176 89.2 7.8% 16.7%vs RHP 399 12.3% 27.3% 17.7% 38

4 Ketel Marte 44 D — COOL 99 0.190 90.2 8.5% 14.0%vs RHP 408 14.0% 0.0% 11.2% 43

5 Tim Tawa 41 D — COOL 119 0.155 90.6 8.8% 23.3%vs RHP 399 9.1% 10.0% 10.6% 26

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D — COOL 187 0.105 86.6 7.0% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.4% 0.0% 9.3% 7

7 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — COOL 194 0.126 87.3 5.0% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 6.8% 25

8 Jose Fernandez 30 D — COOL 198 0.091 88.0 5.5% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 3

9 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D — COOL 205 0.109 87.3 4.4% 9.2%vs RHP 383 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% 32

vs Corbin Burnes · RHP 2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 64 C+ — · 10 0.269 92.0 11.4% 30.4%vs RHP 393 24.1% 27.3% 28.4% 28

2 Paul Goldschmidt 48 D — COOL 70 0.202 86.7 9.8% 17.5%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 11.7% 10

3 Cody Bellinger 46 D — · 86 0.167 89.2 7.8% 13.8%vs RHP 377 11.4% 33.3% 16.0% 42

4 Austin Wells 42 D — · 114 0.133 89.5 8.1% 16.1%vs RHP 381 9.8% 27.3% 13.1% 18

5 Ryan Mcmahon 40 D — COOL 128 0.135 90.5 9.0% 17.2%vs RHP 387 9.1% 0.0% 8.0% 23

6 Jose Caballero 34 D — WARM 173 0.140 84.0 6.3% 23.3%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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