TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ PIT

PNC Park is live · 1.12×

KC @ PIT

PNC Park · 1:35p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:35p

+5 ↑

2:35p

+4 ↑

3:35p

+4 ↑

4:35p

+3 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at +5

Best of game John Rave conv 19 · vs Bachar ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 31 · vs Wacha → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Lake Bachar RHP · PIT

leak 71

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 John Rave — D ●●●○○

2 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

3 Salvador Perez — D ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 18

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●●●

2 Rafael Flores Jr. — C ●●●●○

3 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 22.9% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Wacha Edge — 0.228 · 91.1 · 9.2% 40.0% 22.9% F B O C 57

· PIT Rafael Flores Jr. vs Wacha — 0.244 · 90.6 · 9.6% 22.2% 30.5% F B O C 54

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.205 · 94.3 · 10.4% 16.7% 19.0% F B O C 54

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Bachar Edge — 0.206 · 93.0 · 10.3% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· KC John Rave COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.225 · 88.0 · 8.8% 10.0% 27.4% F B O D 49

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.181 · 89.1 · 6.8% 16.7% 13.2% F B O D 44

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Bachar Edge — 0.165 · 89.3 · 6.7% 18.2% 11.3% F B O D 42

· KC Salvador Perez vs Bachar — 0.148 · 89.0 · 8.9% 10.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Wacha Edge — 0.085 · 85.8 · 4.1% 12.5% 6.2% F B O D 28

· KC Bobby Witt Jr. vs Bachar — 0.164 · 92.2 · 9.5% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 46

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Wacha Edge — 0.163 · 90.9 · 8.9% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 43

· KC Tyler Tolbert COOL vs Bachar — 0.114 · 84.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 35

· KC Luke Maile vs Bachar — 0.108 · 84.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 36

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Wacha — 0.121 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Bachar — 0.144 · 86.8 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Wacha — 0.087 · 86.3 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 28

· KC Maikel Garcia COOL vs Bachar — 0.116 · 89.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 34

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Wacha Edge — 0.120 · 86.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael Wacha — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rave Massey Lowe Jr. Cruz O'Hearn

Legend

attack side — vs Bachar fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 57

Rafael Flores Jr. — · 54

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 7 mph out 69°F open

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

1:35p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

70°F

2:35p

↑

7 mph · out

71°F

3:35p

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

4:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

71°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 69°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 51 C — WARM 49 0.206 93.0 10.3% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.0% 0.0% 17.5% 2

2 John Rave 49 D — COOL 57 0.225 88.0 8.8% 35.7%vs RHP 395 13.6% 10.0% 27.4% 20

3 Bobby Witt Jr. 46 D — · 91 0.164 92.2 9.5% 15.4%vs RHP 403 14.4% 8.3% 10.3% 31

4 Salvador Perez 44 D — · 102 0.148 89.0 8.9% 16.9%vs RHP 405 14.4% 10.0% 9.5% 35

5 Michael Massey 42 D — COOL 115 0.165 89.3 6.7% 10.5%vs RHP 393 8.5% 18.2% 11.3% 32

6 Luke Maile 36 D — WARM 163 0.108 84.6 5.6% 9.1% 396 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 3

7 Nick Loftin 36 D — COOL 165 0.144 86.8 5.7% 10.9%vs RHP 397 8.3% 0.0% 8.5% 24

8 Tyler Tolbert 35 D — COOL 169 0.114 84.9 4.9% 22.2%vs RHP 386 11.1% 0.0% 11.2% 4

9 Maikel Garcia 34 D — COOL 177 0.116 89.7 5.9% 2.5%vs RHP 398 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% 9

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 57 C — · 19 0.228 91.1 9.2% 26.1%vs RHP 391 19.0% 40.0% 22.9% 25

2 Rafael Flores Jr. 54 C — · 35 0.244 90.6 9.6% 25.0%vs RHP 407 20.8% 22.2% 30.5% 24

3 Oneil Cruz 54 C — COOL 38 0.205 94.3 10.4% 41.7%vs RHP 413 21.7% 16.7% 19.0% 30

4 Ryan O'Hearn 44 D — COOL 101 0.181 89.1 6.8% 22.9%vs RHP 385 13.6% 16.7% 13.2% 16

5 Bryan Reynolds 43 D — · 110 0.163 90.9 8.9% 14.1%vs RHP 407 10.6% 8.3% 8.4% 33

6 Konnor Griffin 35 D — COOL 171 0.121 87.6 6.8% 17.4%vs RHP 401 5.1% 0.0% 8.9% 40

7 Spencer Horwitz 34 D — COOL 178 0.120 86.9 6.4% 12.3%vs RHP 395 8.2% 0.0% 6.6% 21

8 Nick Gonzales 28 D — WARM 209 0.087 86.3 4.5% 8.9%vs RHP 397 5.7% 0.0% 7.9% 23

9 Jake Mangum 28 D — HOT 211 0.085 85.8 4.1% 8.1%vs RHP 394 4.9% 12.5% 6.2% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.