0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
7.2%
Overall HR/FB
5.15
FIP
6.03
xFIP
#21
Leakiest SP today (of 22, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
9
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 9th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 63.5%
OFF 28.1%
BRK 8.5%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 5 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (63.5% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
43.5%
79.8
24.2°
0
+1.0
Changeup Offspeed
28.1%
84.2
6.7°
0
-2.2
Cutter Hard
20.0%
84.4
24.3°
1
-0.0
Curveball Breaking
8.5%
78.6
12.2°
0
+2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB7.2% 9
HR/9—
FIP5.15 85
xFIP6.03
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-07
Fastball
Hard · 43.5% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.8 mph
Avg launch angle24.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches113
Changeup
Offspeed · 28.1% usage
-2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle6.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches73
Cutter
Hard · 20.0% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle24.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches52
Curveball
Breaking · 8.5% usage
+2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.6 mph
Avg launch angle12.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches22
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Jonah Tong.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — loanDepot Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.831
Wind
7 mph from S
Temp
85°F
Roof
Retractable
TimeWindTempFIT
1:10p
7
85°
-7
2:10p
8
85°
-9
3:10p
10
84°
-10
4:10p
12
83°
-11
5:10p
14
81°
-11
-10
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 10 mph from S
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
344ft
deep
CF
407ft
avg
RF
335ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
355ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
363ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 335 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Jonah Tong.
Common questions about Jonah Tong
Is Jonah Tong likely to give up a home run tonight?
Jonah Tong pitches tonight (NYM @ MIA at loanDepot Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Which batters have homered off Jonah Tong?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Jonah Tong include Austin Hays (1), Liam Hicks (1), Matt McLain (1) and 3 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.