Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-09-08T17:00:27-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-09-08
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +16.7 | +0.4 | 26% | 1 | 5 | #76 | |
| · | Jake Mangum | Sean Burke | Knuckle Curve | +14.3 | +0.6 | 20% | 0 | 2 | #205 | |
| · | Zac Veen | Cam Schlittler | Curveball | +14.9 | +0.7 | 10% | 1 | 0 | #94 | |
| · | Fernando Tatis | Riley Cornelio | Slider | +3.8 | +1.2 | 51% | 6 | 2 | #115 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +4.3 | -0.9 | 53% | 17 | 2 | #15 | |
| · | Matt Shaw | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +2.0 | -1.6 | 63% | 3 | 8 | #194 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | AJ Smith-Shawver | Slider | +4.3 | +10.8 | 8% | 4 | 1 | #113 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.6 | 63% | 8 | 8 | #116 | |
| · | Miguel Amaya | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.7 | -1.6 | 63% | 4 | 8 | #221 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.6 | 63% | 16 | 8 | #21 | |
| · | Tyrone Taylor | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +1.4 | -1.6 | 63% | 3 | 8 | #133 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.7 | +0.4 | 52% | 7 | 12 | #53 | |
| · | Braden Montgomery | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.6 | +0.2 | 48% | 2 | 6 | #147 | |
| · | Bryce Eldridge | Quinn Mathews | Fastball | +3.5 | +0.7 | 43% | 7 | 0 | #154 | |
| · | Alex Bregman | Jacob Misiorowski | Fastball | +0.5 | -1.6 | 63% | 7 | 8 | #160 | |
| · | Munetaka Murakami | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +2.0 | +0.2 | 48% | 13 | 6 | #9 | |
| · | Agustin Ramirez | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +4.2 | +2.2 | 30% | 1 | 6 | #228 | |
| · | Junior Caminero | AJ Smith-Shawver | Splitter | +4.7 | -0.3 | 36% | 2 | 0 | #3 | |
| · | Aaron Judge | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.9 | 53% | 4 | 2 | #11 | |
| · | Eduardo Valencia | Dean Kremer | Curveball | +8.6 | +1.1 | 13% | 1 | 2 | #41 | |
| · | Kaelen Culpepper | Drew Anderson | Fastball | +4.5 | -1.1 | 40% | 2 | 4 | #188 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.3 | +0.4 | 52% | 13 | 12 | #10 | |
| · | Ty France | Riley Cornelio | Slider | +0.0 | +1.2 | 51% | 5 | 2 | #49 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | AJ Smith-Shawver | Slider | +2.1 | +10.8 | 8% | 6 | 1 | #55 | |
| · | Jackson Merrill | Riley Cornelio | Slider | +0.0 | +1.2 | 51% | 4 | 2 | #91 | |
| · | Spencer Jones | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.9 | 53% | 3 | 2 | #50 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Riley Cornelio | Slider | -0.3 | +1.2 | 51% | 4 | 2 | #59 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Sean Manaea | Sweeper | +3.5 | +2.2 | 30% | 2 | 6 | #146 | |
| · | Dylan Crews | Casey Mize | Splitter | +6.1 | +1.0 | 23% | 1 | 1 | #168 | |
| · | Sam Antonacci | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.2 | 48% | 6 | 6 | #174 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+50.1 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+43.5 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+39.5 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+46.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+26.8 RV allowed
Zack Littell
+25.1 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.