Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-31T17:00:28-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-31
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Taj Bradley | Splitter | +16.7 | +0.3 | 20% | 1 | 2 | #103 | |
| · | Ildemaro Vargas | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +11.7 | -1.1 | 33% | 1 | 9 | #144 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Kyle Harrison | Slurve | +12.7 | -1.9 | 31% | 0 | 1 | #174 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | George Kirby | Splitter | +16.2 | +0.0 | 2% | 2 | 0 | #155 | |
| · | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.9 | 58% | 16 | 10 | #2 | |
| · | Ty France | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.4 | +0.3 | 50% | 4 | 10 | #18 | |
| · | Jackson Merrill | Brady Singer | Sinker | +2.4 | +0.3 | 50% | 1 | 10 | #19 | |
| · | Seiya Suzuki | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +1.5 | -0.9 | 58% | 7 | 10 | #25 | |
| · | Luis Campusano | Brady Singer | Sinker | +1.8 | +0.3 | 50% | 1 | 10 | #56 | |
| · | Pete Alonso | Tanner Gordon | Fastball | +2.3 | +0.8 | 44% | 13 | 7 | #5 | |
| · | Carson Kelly | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.5 | -0.9 | 58% | 0 | 10 | #109 | |
| · | Max Muncy | Jacob deGrom | Fastball | +2.7 | +0.1 | 42% | 15 | 12 | #10 | |
| · | Michael Busch | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.9 | 58% | 8 | 10 | #61 | |
| · | Alex Bregman | Kyle Harrison | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.9 | 58% | 6 | 10 | #68 | |
| · | Brian Navarreto | Will Dion | Cutter | +4.6 | +7.3 | 9% | 1 | 1 | #102 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Robert Stock | Sweeper | +6.6 | +3.6 | 11% | 4 | 1 | #88 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +1.6 | +1.4 | 41% | 7 | 1 | #46 | |
| · | Dominic Canzone | Payton Tolle | Fastball | +2.2 | -0.6 | 45% | 10 | 7 | #73 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Cade Povich | Slider | +4.7 | +4.8 | 14% | 11 | 3 | #3 | |
| · | Esteury Ruiz | Will Dion | Fastball | +3.1 | -1.1 | 42% | 4 | 3 | #66 | |
| · | Liam Hicks | Robert Stock | Cutter | +3.3 | +1.5 | 32% | 1 | 1 | #95 | |
| · | Ezequiel Duran | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.7 | 46% | 6 | 7 | #106 | |
| · | Brooks Lee | Jackson Jobe | Fastball | +1.4 | +2.4 | 37% | 10 | 2 | #67 | |
| · | Wyatt Langford | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.7 | 46% | 4 | 7 | #75 | |
| · | Mickey Gasper | George Kirby | Fastball | +5.1 | -0.5 | 29% | 3 | 8 | #91 | |
| · | Hao-Yu Lee | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.5 | 47% | 3 | 9 | #103 | |
| · | William Contreras | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +1.2 | -1.8 | 51% | 3 | 3 | #115 | |
| · | Ceddanne Rafaela | George Kirby | Sweeper | +4.6 | +0.1 | 29% | 4 | 4 | #155 | |
| · | Hunter Goodman | Cade Povich | Sinker | +4.2 | +6.0 | 9% | 6 | 0 | #3 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Anthony Molina | Fastball | +0.6 | +1.4 | 41% | 13 | 1 | #9 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+49.4 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+42.1 RV
Kyle Schwarber
+37.9 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+43.7 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+31.2 RV allowed
Zack Littell
+24.4 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.