0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
20.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.91
FIP
3.32
xFIP
#4
Leakiest SP today (of 24, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 55.0%
OFF 25.3%
BRK 19.8%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 3
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (55.0% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
42.1%
82.2
36.3°
3
-1.1
Changeup Offspeed
25.3%
69.8
14.3°
1
-2.4
Curveball Breaking
19.8%
83.3
9.4°
1
+1.4
Cutter Hard
8.9%
81.9
18.2°
1
+7.3
Sinker Hard
4.0%
83.1
17.2°
0
+0.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB20.6% 87
HR/9—
FIP3.91 44
xFIP3.32
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Fastball
Hard · 42.1% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle36.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches223
Changeup
Offspeed · 25.3% usage
-2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against69.8 mph
Avg launch angle14.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches134
Curveball
Breaking · 19.8% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle9.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches105
Cutter
Hard · 8.9% usage
+7.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle18.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches47
Sinker
Hard · 4.0% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle17.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches21
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Will Dion.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Nationals Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.193
Wind
4 mph from NNE
Temp
83°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:45p
4
83°
+3
7:45p
5
75°
+2
8:45p
4
73°
+6
9:45p
2
71°
+8
10:45p
1
70°
+7
+5
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 2 mph from E
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
336ft
avg
CF
402ft
avg
RF
335ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
365ft
0 HRs allowed · deep
vs RHH → LF
367ft
0 HRs allowed · deep
Shortest: RF 335 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Will Dion.
Common questions about Will Dion
Is Will Dion likely to give up a home run tonight?
Will Dion pitches tonight (MIA @ WSH at Nationals Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.