Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-08-10T17:00:25-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-10
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jimmy Crooks | Andrew Painter | Sweeper | +16.8 | +0.7 | 14% | 2 | 2 | #68 | |
| · | Jackson Holliday | Dean Kremer | Splitter | +8.8 | +0.1 | 29% | 1 | 2 | #72 | |
| · | Tyler Soderstrom | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +1.4 | +0.4 | 53% | 6 | 9 | #6 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Christian Scott | Fastball | +1.9 | -0.1 | 49% | 7 | 5 | #25 | |
| · | Jacob Wilson | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.4 | 53% | 3 | 9 | #80 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Casey Mize | Splitter | +6.6 | +0.7 | 24% | 1 | 1 | #117 | |
| · | Carlos Cortes | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.2 | +0.4 | 53% | 2 | 9 | #37 | |
| · | Matt Olson | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.9 | -0.1 | 49% | 12 | 5 | #2 | |
| · | Joc Pederson | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +1.5 | +0.2 | 45% | 8 | 10 | #16 | |
| · | Jonah Heim | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.4 | +0.4 | 53% | 4 | 9 | #26 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | Jacob Lopez | Slider | +4.3 | +0.6 | 32% | 3 | 4 | #38 | |
| · | Nolan Arenado | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.5 | -2.5 | 55% | 10 | 1 | #74 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Jameson Taillon | Sinker | +6.2 | +4.1 | 10% | 9 | 3 | #4 | |
| · | Yordan Alvarez | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +2.7 | +1.0 | 36% | 12 | 1 | #28 | |
| · | Gabriel Moreno | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +1.3 | -2.5 | 55% | 5 | 1 | #118 | |
| · | Lawrence Butler | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -0.9 | +0.4 | 53% | 2 | 9 | #45 | |
| · | Ryan Kreidler | Trevor Rogers | Fastball | +1.8 | -0.6 | 45% | 3 | 7 | #100 | |
| · | Ketel Marte | Gabriel Hughes | Sinker | +4.4 | +7.1 | 5% | 6 | 0 | #76 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Blade Tidwell | Sweeper | +2.9 | +0.0 | 37% | 3 | 0 | #90 | |
| · | Jeff Mcneil | Freddy Peralta | Fastball | -1.0 | +0.4 | 53% | 0 | 9 | #106 | |
| · | Geraldo Perdomo | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.7 | -2.5 | 55% | 5 | 1 | #130 | |
| · | Jose Altuve | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +2.3 | +1.0 | 36% | 5 | 1 | #135 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Hunter Dobbins | Fastball | +3.6 | +0.1 | 32% | 12 | 0 | #14 | |
| · | Mike Trout | MacKenzie Gore | Fastball | +1.5 | -1.0 | 46% | 8 | 6 | #32 | |
| · | Manny Machado | Logan Henderson | Fastball | +1.4 | -0.7 | 45% | 11 | 4 | #40 | |
| · | Brandon Nimmo | Reid Detmers | Fastball | +0.6 | +0.2 | 45% | 5 | 10 | #64 | |
| · | Jeremy Peña | Blade Tidwell | Fastball | +2.0 | +1.0 | 36% | 2 | 1 | #90 | |
| · | Jim Jarvis | Christian Scott | Fastball | +0.1 | -0.1 | 49% | 1 | 5 | #101 | |
| · | Edmundo Sosa | Hunter Dobbins | Fastball | +3.8 | +0.1 | 32% | 3 | 0 | #120 | |
| · | Ryan Waldschmidt | Gabriel Hughes | Fastball | +0.5 | -2.5 | 55% | 1 | 1 | #125 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+45.7 RV
Pete Crow-Armstrong
+34.1 RV
Junior Caminero
+33.7 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+38.2 RV allowed
Aaron Nola
+26.3 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.8 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.