Pitch Arsenal
Batter vs. pitcher pitch-type matchups — when a batter who crushes a pitch type faces a pitcher whose version of that pitch is getting shelled, that's an exploitable edge.
⚡ Arsenal Edges
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-08-08T14:00:35-04:00
Arsenal Edges · 2026-08-08
| Hit? | Signal Composite signal strength combining three factors: how much the batter crushes this pitch (45%), how badly the pitcher gets shelled on it (35%), and how often the pitcher throws it (10%). Higher = more exploitable. | Batter | Pitcher |
Pitch
The specific pitch type where the matchup edge exists. Color-coded by family: Hard — Fastball, Sinker, Cutter Breaking — Slider, Curve, Sweeper Offspeed — Changeup, Splitter |
Bat RV/100
Batter's Run Value per 100 pitches against this pitch type. +15 = solid · +30 = elite crusher |
Pit RV/100
Pitcher's Run Value allowed per 100 on this pitch type. +10 = vulnerable · +20 = getting shelled |
Usage% How often the pitcher throws this pitch type. | Bat HRs Home runs the batter has hit off this specific pitch type this season. | Pit HRs Home runs the pitcher has allowed on this pitch type this season. | Rank The batter's rank on that day's slate (by model HR probability score). |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | Jordan Walker | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +21.5 | +1.7 | 20% | 1 | 5 | #35 | |
| · | Nathan Lukes | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +8.2 | -0.5 | 33% | 1 | 8 | #141 | |
| · | Bryce Harper | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +3.7 | +0.6 | 48% | 12 | 3 | #3 | |
| · | Cj Abrams | Chase Burns | Fastball | +2.1 | -0.6 | 57% | 4 | 7 | #6 | |
| · | Jacob Young | Chase Burns | Fastball | +1.6 | -0.6 | 57% | 5 | 7 | #89 | |
| · | Ben Rice | Chris Sale | Fastball | +5.1 | -1.2 | 41% | 15 | 7 | #16 | |
| · | Kyle Schwarber | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +2.1 | +0.6 | 48% | 10 | 3 | #1 | |
| · | Salvador Perez | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +3.2 | -1.6 | 50% | 6 | 2 | #149 | |
| · | Tristan Peters | Gavin Williams | Sweeper | +7.0 | -0.6 | 28% | 2 | 6 | #143 | |
| · | Yandy Diaz | George Kirby | Sweeper | +5.9 | +0.1 | 29% | 3 | 4 | #136 | |
| · | Jj Wetherholt | Kyle Freeland | Knuckle Curve | +6.5 | +1.7 | 20% | 0 | 5 | #155 | |
| · | Jake Bauers | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +2.2 | -0.4 | 47% | 5 | 8 | #20 | |
| · | Trea Turner | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +1.1 | +0.6 | 48% | 5 | 3 | #30 | |
| · | Willson Contreras | Gage Jump | Fastball | +1.3 | +0.4 | 48% | 4 | 5 | #31 | |
| · | Alika Williams | Jake Bennett | Cutter | +12.7 | -1.8 | 4% | 1 | 0 | #199 | |
| · | Brandon Marsh | Max Scherzer | Fastball | +0.7 | +0.6 | 48% | 5 | 3 | #27 | |
| · | Carson Benge | Bubba Chandler | Fastball | +1.2 | +0.0 | 48% | 5 | 5 | #115 | |
| · | Michael Conforto | Seth Lugo | Sinker | +7.5 | -0.5 | 20% | 2 | 4 | #57 | |
| · | Paul Goldschmidt | Chris Sale | Fastball | +3.2 | -1.2 | 41% | 9 | 7 | #72 | |
| · | Nico Hoerner | Seth Lugo | Sweeper | +6.8 | +3.1 | 10% | 2 | 4 | #175 | |
| · | Drake Baldwin | Gerrit Cole | Fastball | +1.9 | -1.4 | 47% | 7 | 4 | #32 | |
| · | Kevin Mcgonigle | Landen Roupp | Sinker | +3.6 | -0.1 | 35% | 5 | 6 | #160 | |
| · | Caleb Durbin | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.4 | +0.4 | 48% | 4 | 5 | #178 | |
| · | Jackson Chourio | Taj Bradley | Fastball | +1.1 | -0.4 | 47% | 4 | 8 | #42 | |
| · | Carter Jensen | Clay Holmes | Sinker | +1.1 | -1.6 | 50% | 2 | 2 | #68 | |
| · | Jonathan Aranda | George Kirby | Sweeper | +4.6 | +0.1 | 29% | 2 | 4 | #106 | |
| · | Christian Yelich | Taj Bradley | Splitter | +6.7 | -0.1 | 20% | 1 | 1 | #144 | |
| · | Connor Wong | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.4 | 48% | 1 | 5 | #169 | |
| · | Nick Sogard | Gage Jump | Fastball | +0.2 | +0.4 | 48% | 0 | 5 | #219 | |
| · | George Springer | Aaron Nola | Knuckle Curve | +4.1 | -0.5 | 33% | 1 | 8 | #29 |
🔥 Batter Arsenal Preview
Yordan Alvarez
+45.9 RV
Willson Contreras
+34.3 RV
Junior Caminero
+33.9 RV
💀 Pitcher Arsenal Preview
Michael Lorenzen
+38.2 RV allowed
Jeffrey Springs
+25.7 RV allowed
Zac Gallen
+23.7 RV allowed
What is Run Value (RV)?
Run Value measures how much a pitch outcome changes the expected runs in a game.
Positive RV for a batter = good (they're generating offense). Positive RV against a pitcher = bad (they're giving up offense).
RV/100 normalizes per 100 pitches seen/thrown for fair comparison.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.
How Arsenal Edges work: When a batter with a high RV against fastballs faces a pitcher whose fastball has a high RV allowed, and that pitcher throws their fastball 40%+ of the time — that's a concrete, pitch-level HR edge that goes beyond general HR/FB rates.
Pitch families: Hard (Fastball, Sinker, Cutter) · Breaking (Slider, Curveball, Sweeper) · Offspeed (Changeup, Splitter)
Data source: Statcast pitch-level data via Baseball Savant. Hover any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher/batter context.