TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ STL

Neutral air · 1.04×

WSH @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 2 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:15p

-3 ↑

7:15p

-3 ↑

8:15p

-4 ↑

9:15p

-4 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at -2

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 23 · vs McGreevy ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 14 · vs Alvarez → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 62

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — C ●●●●○

2 Dylan Crews — D ●●○○○

3 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 12

0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 13.0% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs McGreevy Edge — 0.230 · 89.7 · 9.6% 33.3% 13.0% F B O C 51

· WSH James Wood COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.252 · 95.2 · 13.6% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· STL Alec Burleson vs Alvarez — 0.187 · 91.9 · 8.0% 16.7% 11.0% F B O D 41

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs McGreevy — 0.147 · 90.3 · 9.3% 20.0% 6.8% F B O D 41

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs McGreevy Edge — 0.171 · 88.0 · 6.8% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 38

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Alvarez — 0.128 · 89.4 · 7.6% 11.1% 6.0% F B O D 33

· STL Jordan Walker vs Alvarez Edge — 0.204 · 92.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· WSH Daylen Lile vs McGreevy Edge — 0.185 · 88.6 · 9.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 42

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Alvarez — 0.127 · 89.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 30

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs McGreevy — 0.140 · 87.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 33

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Alvarez — 0.118 · 85.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.034 · 85.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 16

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Alvarez Edge — 0.132 · 89.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 26

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs McGreevy Edge — 0.089 · 82.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 25

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.111 · 86.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.086 · 88.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Michael McGreevy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Alvarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Crews Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs McGreevy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 2 mph out 92°F open

-2

↑

2 mph · out

92°F

6:15p · peak

-3

↑

1 mph · out

89°F

7:15p

-3

↑

1 mph · out

88°F

8:15p

-4

↑

1 mph · slight_out

86°F

9:15p

-4

↑

2 mph · slight_out

85°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 92°F, wind 2 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 58 C — COOL 29 0.252 95.2 13.6% 35.6%vs RHP 413 23.1% 0.0% 15.0% 23

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 51 C — WARM 61 0.230 89.7 9.6% 27.1%vs RHP 396 30.8% 33.3% 13.0% 25

3 Daylen Lile 42 D — WARM 122 0.185 88.6 9.4% 14.1%vs RHP 401 11.1% 0.0% 8.9% 26

4 Dylan Crews 41 D — COOL 132 0.147 90.3 9.3% 10.6%vs RHP 407 14.1% 20.0% 6.8% 27

5 Keibert Ruiz 38 D — WARM 150 0.171 88.0 6.8% 10.6%vs RHP 380 10.8% 16.7% 8.8% 18

6 Jacob Young 33 D — COOL 183 0.140 87.6 7.3% 11.9%vs RHP 399 6.3% 0.0% 6.6% 19

7 Jorbit Vivas 25 D — WARM 214 0.089 82.8 5.4% 6.0%vs RHP 392 2.3% 0.0% 5.6% 15

8 Nasim Nunez 16 D — COOL 225 0.034 85.0 2.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 7

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 43 D — · 111 0.204 92.5 8.7% 33.3%vs LHP 406 16.5% 0.0% 11.0% 21

2 Alec Burleson 41 D — WARM 126 0.187 91.9 8.0% 8.3%vs LHP 405 14.3% 16.7% 11.0% 30

3 Nolan Gorman 33 D — WARM 185 0.128 89.4 7.6% 11.1%vs LHP 407 9.2% 11.1% 6.0% 22

4 Jj Wetherholt 30 D — COOL 198 0.127 89.9 6.6% 11.8%vs LHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.5% 2

5 Nathan Church 27 D — COOL 207 0.118 85.7 5.7% 13.3%vs LHP 386 7.2% 0.0% 6.2% 32

6 Ivan Herrera 26 D — · 209 0.132 89.4 5.5% 16.7%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 29

7 José Fermín 23 D — COOL 220 0.111 86.1 3.5% 12.1%vs LHP 390 5.3% 0.0% 5.6% 18

8 Masyn Winn 22 D — COOL 223 0.086 88.2 4.4% 4.8%vs LHP 385 3.9% 0.0% 4.9% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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