TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.35×

TOR @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph slight_out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:05p

+8 ↑

7:05p

+8 ↑

8:05p

+8 ↑

9:05p

+8 ↑

10:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +8 FIT

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 37 · vs Soriano ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 35 · vs Quantrill → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 89

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●●

2 Corey Seager — C ●●●●●

3 Wyatt Langford — C ●●●○○

FADE Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 71

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●●

2 George Springer — D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 34.3% · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.250 · 92.1 · 9.1% 40.0% 34.3% F B O C+ 63

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Quantrill — 0.229 · 90.6 · 10.1% 41.7% 28.7% F B O C+ 63

· — Corey Seager COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.199 · 91.7 · 10.3% 33.3% 25.8% F B O C 58

· — Wyatt Langford vs Soriano — 0.194 · 89.0 · 7.7% 16.7% 20.9% F B O C 51

· — Jake Burger vs Soriano — 0.191 · 90.1 · 9.4% 16.7% 19.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Evan Carter COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.125 · 87.8 · 6.2% 14.3% 11.9% F B O D 39

· — Josh Jung vs Soriano — 0.151 · 90.6 · 7.1% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 43

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Quantrill — 0.163 · 88.6 · 7.0% 10.0% 11.0% F B O D 45

· — Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Soriano — 0.167 · 88.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· — Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.149 · 92.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.115 · 86.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 34

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero HOT vs Quantrill — 0.098 · 90.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· — Nicky Lopez COOL vs Soriano Edge — 0.041 · 84.5 · — 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 20

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Quantrill Edge — 0.116 · 85.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Quantrill — 0.107 · 84.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Quantrill — 0.107 · 86.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cal Quantrill — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for José Soriano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Pederson Seager Burger Langford Carter

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson — · 63

Kazuma Okamoto — · 63

Corey Seager — · 58

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 6:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 8 mph slight_out 94°F retractable

↑

8 mph · slight_out

94°F

6:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

93°F

7:05p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

90°F

8:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

87°F

9:05p

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 94°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 63 C+ — WARM 12 0.229 90.6 10.1% 27.1%vs RHP 400 20.0% 41.7% 28.7% 31

2 George Springer 45 D — COOL 94 0.163 88.6 7.0% 18.6%vs RHP 394 11.1% 10.0% 11.0% 30

3 Vladimir Guerrero 37 D — HOT 158 0.098 90.5 7.3% 9.1%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 33

4 Nathan Lukes 34 D — COOL 175 0.115 86.6 4.2% 15.2%vs RHP 382 7.6% 0.0% 8.2% 31

5 Myles Straw 33 D — COOL 182 0.107 86.0 4.6% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 17

6 Andres Gimenez 32 D — COOL 187 0.116 85.4 5.0% 9.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 32

7 Ernie Clement 32 D — COOL 188 0.107 84.1 3.9% 5.4%vs RHP 376 6.4% 0.0% 7.3% 35

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 11 0.250 92.1 9.1% 30.1%vs RHP 396 23.2% 40.0% 34.3% 12

2 Corey Seager 58 C — COOL 26 0.199 91.7 10.3% 22.6%vs RHP 397 18.1% 33.3% 25.8% 36

3 Jake Burger 53 C — WARM 45 0.191 90.1 9.4% 20.0%vs RHP 402 15.8% 16.7% 19.7% 24

4 Wyatt Langford 51 C — WARM 56 0.194 89.0 7.7% 23.6%vs RHP 401 14.9% 16.7% 20.9% 20

5 Brandon Nimmo 44 D — COOL 99 0.149 92.1 8.3% 11.4%vs RHP 404 9.1% 0.0% 9.9% 29

6 Josh Jung 43 D — WARM 106 0.151 90.6 7.1% 15.1%vs RHP 384 10.4% 16.7% 8.8% 20

7 Ezequiel Duran 43 D — COOL 113 0.167 88.9 6.6% 20.3%vs RHP 397 12.6% 0.0% 10.2% 32

8 Evan Carter 39 D — COOL 142 0.125 87.8 6.2% 12.2%vs RHP 380 7.3% 14.3% 11.9% 15

9 Nicky Lopez 20 D — COOL 224 0.041 84.5 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.7% 0.0% 7.7% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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