TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ CLE

Neutral air · 1.04×

ATH @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 10 mph slight_out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:10p

+3 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+9 ↑

9:10p

+13 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +13

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 26 · vs Bibee ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 26 · vs Lopez → edge: Lawrence Butler

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 29

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●●○

2 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

3 Zack Gelof — C ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 15

1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●○

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●○○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Lawrence Butler: Match 19.6% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Bibee — 0.203 · 89.5 · 8.8% 16.7% 12.3% F B O C 51

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Bibee — 0.226 · 91.6 · 10.9% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler ✶ vs Bibee Edge — 0.159 · 89.7 · 8.3% 33.3% 19.6% F B O D 48

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Lopez — 0.159 · 87.8 · 5.7% 40.0% 12.7% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Bibee — 0.127 · 90.8 · 8.2% 25.0% 12.0% F B O D 43

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.128 · 86.9 · 4.4% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 35

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Lopez — 0.067 · 83.6 · 1.6% 8.3% 5.3% F B O D 24

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Lopez Edge — 0.195 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Lopez — 0.164 · 91.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.166 · 87.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.135 · 88.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.134 · 88.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Bibee Edge — 0.103 · 86.5 · 3.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 30

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.117 · 90.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Tanner Bibee — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Lopez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Bolte Bazzana

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Lawrence Butler — · 48

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 10 mph slight_out 72°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

72°F

6:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

70°F

7:10p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

69°F

8:10p

↑

13 mph · out

69°F

9:10p

+13

↑

15 mph · out

69°F

10:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 72°F, wind 10 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 55 C — COOL 37 0.226 91.6 10.9% 22.9%vs RHP 417 19.6% 0.0% 13.6% 10

2 Zack Gelof 51 C — WARM 60 0.203 89.5 8.8% 24.1%vs RHP 398 20.9% 16.7% 12.3% 31

3 Lawrence Butler ✶ 48 D — WARM 72 0.159 89.7 8.3% 24.5%vs RHP 408 10.4% 33.3% 19.6% 30

4 Henry Bolte 43 D — WARM 104 0.127 90.8 8.2% 14.8%vs RHP 398 12.3% 25.0% 12.0% 21

5 Jonah Heim 41 D — COOL 129 0.166 87.6 7.2% 6.8%vs RHP 409 8.3% 0.0% 9.5% 19

6 Carlos Cortes 37 D — COOL 156 0.135 88.3 7.0% 16.1%vs RHP 400 4.7% 0.0% 8.9% 25

7 Jeff Mcneil 30 D — COOL 197 0.103 86.5 3.9% 11.6%vs RHP 380 6.1% 0.0% 8.1% 34

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Travis Bazzana 45 D — WARM 96 0.159 87.8 5.7% 8.0%vs LHP 392 13.3% 40.0% 12.7% 28

2 Angel Martinez 42 D — · 118 0.195 87.6 7.0% 20.0%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 24

3 Chase Delauter 40 D — WARM 133 0.164 91.5 6.3% 11.8%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 17

4 Patrick Bailey 38 D — COOL 152 0.117 90.3 6.8% 10.0%vs LHP 409 6.7% 0.0% 7.4% 18

5 Brayan Rocchio 35 D — COOL 166 0.128 86.9 4.4% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.3% 8.3% 7.5% 31

6 Jose Ramirez 34 D — COOL 174 0.134 88.6 5.2% 14.7%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 32

7 Steven Kwan 24 D — COOL 218 0.067 83.6 1.6% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.1% 8.3% 5.3% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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